Modern footy trends counted against talented Menzel

Geelong's decision to delist Daniel Menzel has been met with surprise, if not disbelief, among sections of footy fandom, who are mystified that a spot cannot be found for a forward who can kick 40 goals in a season.

It is to be hoped that Menzel finds a club and that his storied career – heartbreaking and uplifting in equal measure – continues.

Daniel Menzel.

Daniel Menzel.Credit:AAP

Menzel's manager says there are five clubs whom he has spoken with about recruiting the forward. As yet, he has not landed at one of those clubs, which again, will be puzzling to many supporters.

Whatever happens to Menzel, it is clear that he doesn't have the kind of currency that a 40-goal forward normally commands. If he's picked up as a delisted free agent or in the draft, he will likely get a very modest contract.

In years past, a player of his scoreboard impact would have been traded for nothing less than a second-round draft pick and would command a three-year deal, on well above average money.

Menzel's career, obviously, has been stymied by the four knee reconstructions he suffered and overcame during his time with Geelong. Those repeat injuries – which robbed him of mobility and lateral movement – are the genesis of his struggles, although his management believes that he was on track until a groin injury – and injection – derailed him after round five this year.

Today, as he searches for a club, there are three game trends that have made him less attractive to suitors – and Geelong – than would have been the case a few short years ago.

1. Pressure/defence

Menzel's position became precarious at Geelong around the same time that Richmond was storming to the premiership with an unconventional, small forward line that applied unprecedented pressure on the opposition.

Menzel was dropped for the qualifying final against the Tigers in 2017, in what was a portent of what was to follow in 12 months. That he couldn't harass the opposition, in the manner of Jason Castagna or Dan Butler, was more problematic in a forward line built around the hulking Tom Hawkins.

In 2018, Collingwood followed the Richmond template, deploying the mid-sized likes of Jaidyn Stephenson, Jordan De Goey and Will Hoskin-Elliott in another speedy, high pressure forward set-up. It is noteworthy that Alex Fasolo – another poor pressure player – was never an option this year at Collingwood.

The premium on players who could not only tackle, but chase – which requires abrupt changes of direction – and force turnovers has never been greater. Logically, the best club for Menzel would be one that needs a scorer, but can cover for his defensive weakness with other quick players.

2. Versatility

Teams prefer players who can play in multiple positions, especially those who can take their turn in the midfield.

Had Menzel not been afflicted by knee issues, he would be a marvellous potential half-back, where his marking and natural footy nous would come in to play; he would not be confined to deep forward duties.

Geelong, after a few years of failing in finals, has taken a different tack in their forward line, recruiting Luke Dalhaus and Gary Rohan – signings that signalled the demise of Menzel at the club. Dalhaus can play midfield and forward, while Rohan – less capable of scoring – has the speed to apply pressure and can be deployed upfield.

3. Analytics

As it stands today, there's a divide between many fans and the clubs on Menzel. In part, this reflects a knowledge gap between the clubs and their supporters.

Up until 2011, the only quantifiable measure of "pressure'' was the number of tackles a player or team applied. Today, as Champion Data has become more precise, clubs look ever more closely at the pressure factor and it is increasingly influential in how they assess players.

There's a pressure rating for every player, in every game. On those numbers, Menzel is poor.

Hawthorn's forward pressure (via Cyril Rioli, Luke Breust and Paul Puopolo) – and their ability to cause front half turnovers – was instrumental in their premierships. But Richmond's flag – and the analysis surrounding it – has created an even greater premium on front half harassment.

That said, it would be remarkable if Menzel didn't find a club that was willing to overlook these weaknesses, given his offensive capabilities. As one club official put it, it is hard to imagine him not finding a spot, when considering the bottom end of playing lists.

"If he can't get the 40th spot – when you look at some of the blokes who get recruited – it's a joke,'' the official said. Menzel can only hope that at least one club – and he only needs one – concurs.

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