THE PGA Tour heads to Toronto with five of the world’s top ten in the field, headed by leader of the pack Scottie Scheffler, and Rory McIlroy, who won the last Canadian Open by a whopping seven shots.
The snag for McIlroy supporters is that his victory came at a different course, in Hamilton, and it was three years ago – the Canadian event has been cancelled due to Covid in each of the past two years.
And despite the stellar field this time, the tournament is still in danger of being overshadowed by the $25million LIV Series opener at Centurion Club in St Albans. It seems like the Canadians simply cannot catch a break at the moment!
With so many unknowns to deal with – and let’s face it, there are some real unknowns in the field – the St Albans event does not hold too much appeal as a betting option.
It is hard to guess how an out-of-form Dustin Johnson and the rest of the better known golfing rebels will react to being thrust into the spotlight, especially with Phil Mickelson making his first appearance in four months.
But I will offer up one each way possibility (below), as well as a trio of likely contenders for the Canadian shootout.
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Canadian Open tips
Hot shot, Cameron Smith, 12-1.
Smith almost turned the formbook upside down at the Memorial last week, as he made a nonsense of his shocking record in Jack Nicklaus’ event by grabbing the 36 hole lead.
Normal service was resumed as the Australian shot a toe-curling 42 for the front nine on Sunday to drop into a share of 13th, but that was still a massive improvement on his previous Memorial efforts.
The St George’s layout would be far more up his street, with plenty of birdie chances to offset the odd mistake or two Smith almost invariably throws in. It may be a par 70, but Carl Pettersson shot a tournament record 60 here when he won in 2010.
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Mid price: Chris Kirk, 40-1
Another player who did not find Memorial to his liking last week, although there was a lot to like about the way he bounced back from an opening 75 to make the cut.
His share of fifth place at the USPGA and a top 15 finish at the Charles Schwab in his previous two starts were top notch efforts, and Kirk is very much a confidence player.
His scrambling skills will be well suited to St George’s, and the American makes plenty of appeal at these odds.
Long shot: Brendon Todd, 66-1.
None of the players at three figure odds are crying out to be backed – although England’s Aaron Rai looks increasingly at home on the other side of the Atlantic – and Todd is another great scrambler who will appreciate this week’s challenge.
His third place finish in the Charles Schwab – just a shot away from making the play-off that saw Sam Burns tackle down Scottie Scheffler – was a return to the kind of form he showed as the PGA Tour’s comeback player of the year three years ago.
World No 1 Scheffler is the 9-1 favourite this week with Burns available at around 14-1. So Todd’s latest near-miss suggests his odds should be a lot shorter than this.
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And finally – the LIV opener: Sam Horsfield, 18-1.
Centurion is not the most challenging course, so it could turn into a real birdie-fest, and Horsfield is usually at his best in those conditions.
A couple of 59s on courses just below tournament standard in his adopted home in Florida confirm the Englishman relishes the chance to go low.
With so many no-hopers, has-beens, and untested wannabes in the 48-man field Horsfield should be targeting a top five finish at the very least – enough to reward each way support – and the $4million winner’s prize is a real possibility.
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