Poll: Trump is more electable than DeSantis, Haley in Arizona, Georgia

EXCLUSIVE Trump IS the most electable Republican after all: Blow for DeSantis and Haley before final debate as Daily Mail poll reveals ex-president is best placed to BEAT Biden in crucial states of Georgia and Arizona

  • Haley and DeSantis are banking on ‘electability’ to beat Trump in the primaries
  • But an exclusive DailyMail.com poll shows he leads them in Arizona and Georgia 
  • Haley, however, would beat Joe Biden in Wisconsin if she were the GOP nominee 

Former President Donald Trump is the Republican candidate best placed to beat Joe Biden in the critical swing states of Arizona and Georgia, according to an exclusive DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners poll, but Nikki Haley can beat the Democratic candidate in Wisconsin.

The results undermine one of the key arguments being made by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Haley: That they are more electable than Trump. 

In fact, our swing states poll shows that while Trump beats Biden by five points in Arizona, DeSantis can only tie and Haley loses by two points. 

In Georgia, Trump beats Biden in a head-to-head contest by two points, but DeSantis loses by six points and Haley loses by one.

Things are different in Wisconsin. There Biden would beat Trump and DeSantis by four points if the 2024 election were held tomorrow, but would lose to Haley by one percentage point.

J.L. Partners surveyed 550 likely voters in each of three key swing states: Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. The results carry a margin of error of 4.2 percent

Trump is ahead of Biden in national opinion polls with almost a year to go. But polling state by state, particularly in key battlegrounds, gives a clearer view of the electoral college result

READ MORE:  Economic worries and political weariness in Atlanta’s bellwether precinct give a taste of 2024 

All the results carry a 4.2 percent margin of error, but show that in at least two of the crucial battlegrounds how Trump is the strongest Republican challenger to Biden. 

‘These are good results for the Trump campaign: Trump is the best-placed to beat Biden in both Arizona and Georgia,’ said James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, which conducted the poll.

‘Haley can take heart from the results in Wisconsin however. While DeSantis and Trump trail Biden, Haley almost pulls Biden to a draw with independents and therefore claims the state by a margin of one point overall. 

‘DeSantis looks a little out in the cold in these results: he comes short of mobilizing the GOP base to the extent that Trump does, while not matching Haley’s performance amongst independents either.’

Haley and DeSantis will do battle on Wednesday in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, scene of the fourth Republican debate.

They are fighting it out for second place behind Trump.

Haley has gained momentum in recent weeks on the back of strong debate performances and key endorsements.

She has leaned into the idea that Trump is a divisive politician. 

‘We have to face the fact that Trump is the most disliked politician in America,’ she said during the first debate in Milwaukee. ‘We can’t win a general election that way.’

Trump has lead over Biden in Georgia (which the Democrat won by just 0.2 percentage points in 2020) but Haley and DeSantis come up short in our poll of 2024 intentions 

Haley and DeSantis clashed repeatedly in last month’s third Republican debate in Miami, Florida, as they aim to position themselves as the best alternative to Trump

There is good news for Haley in Wisconsin. Our poll suggests that, if the election were held tomorrow, she would beat Biden in a head-to-head contest, while DeSantis and Trump lose

Last week she won the backing of the influential Koch network, which has a deep war chest for conservative candidates. 

‘Nikki Haley, at the top of the ticket, would boost candidates up and down the ballot, winning the key independent and moderate voters that Trump has no chance to win,’ said its Americans for Prosperity Action group.

To test out that point, J.L. Partners polled 550 likely voters in three key swing states. They were asked who they could vote for in a general election that pitted Biden against Trump, DeSantis or Haley in head-to-head contests.

The poll results outline her strength and her weakness: Although Haley does better than other Republicans at winning over Democratic voters and independents, Trump’s former United Nations ambassador loses a potentially decisive swath of 2020 Republicans.

Our flow charts illustrate how that works. In Arizona, Trump won 48 percent of the vote in 2020 but as things stand Haley would win only 36 percent of the vote (12 points fewer than the former president this time around in a head-to-head contest with Biden).

A swath of the lost voters say they simply would not turn out in 2024 if she is on the ballot.

However, Haley on the ballot is less of a push factor for Biden supporters than Trump. So Biden can manage only 38 percent against her but 43 against the more polarizing figure of Trump. 

In Wisconsin, things are different. There she appears to win over enough graduates to edge out Biden. 

In our poll, Haley loses members of the Trump base, but wins over some direct Biden switchers and reduces turnout for the Democratic candidate. In Wisconsin it might be enough to win

Four candidates are due to take the stage for the fourth Republican debate in Tuscaloosa, Florida on Wednesday (from left): Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy

DeSantis has also tried to position himself as a Republican candidate who does not carry the sort of baggage that puts off independent voters. He can point to a landslide victory in Florida last year as evidence that he is a winner.

‘Donald Trump’s a lot different guy than he was in 2016,’ DeSantis said during the third Republican debate in Miami last month, a day after disappointing election results for the GOP. 

‘He said Republicans were gonna get tired of winning. Well, we saw [Tuesday] night I’m sick of Republicans losing. In Florida I showed how it’s done.’

The pair stepped up their attacks on each other this week as they prepared for the fourth debate.

DeSantis used a Newsmax TV interview to claim that Haley was not a real conservative, while her spokesman hit back saying he was lying to try to kickstart a failing campaign.

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