A trade deal would be the best outcome, but the Chequers plan is moribund and the agreement offered by the EU in March unacceptable because the “Irish backstop” means splitting the UK.
A likely No Deal would be a good fallback with a better deal possible later.
Leaving without a trade deal would see us trade with the EU on World Trade Organisation terms.
Far from “falling off a cliff”, the EU will have to offer us the most favoured terms its other leading trading partners enjoy.
There would be winners and losers, but applying tariffs to European imports would leave enough to compensate the losers.
Second, without a trade deal, parliament will reject any withdrawal deal offering the EU £40billion — leaving Britain £40billion better off and without our annual contribution.
If the EU tried to punish us, it would contravene its constitution, the WTO treaty and the new trade facilitation treaty.
Freed from constraints of EU membership, we could negotiate our new relationship as equals.
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