Stephen Fishbach has been blogging about Survivor strategy for PEOPLE since 2009. He is the host of the podcast Paraphrase, where he interviews writers about the openings to their novels. Follow him on Twitter at @stephenfishbach.
“If you honestly honor your alliance, you go to the end. No matter what. But always, somebody gets greedy.” — Boston Rob Mariano, Survivor: All Stars
From two returnees left on the beach, now there are none.
David Wright and Kelley Wentworth had an impossibly strong run. Where Joe and Aubry were early targets on the Kama tribe, Kelley and David dominated Manu. Now, within an evening, they’re both out of the main game – and both huge longshots to return from the Edge of Extinction.
So hats off to Wardog, who finally accomplished what nobody else has been able to do. All season I’ve been railing about how short-sighted it is for the new players not to vote out these vets. Seeing David dodge and weave from week to week, and Wentworth hold her idol with knuckles of steel, was breathtaking as a viewer. But it was also infuriating as a player. Why not vote out the most experienced people left in the game?
Wardog wins a Fishy for the first episode, for quickly cobbling together a new majority alliance. After returning from last week’s crazy tribal council, Wardog brings his Lesu 3 and Gavin, Ron, and Julie together to vote for David. It’s a sound strategic move – and it eliminates Wardog’s “nemesis.” (Did we know David was Wardog’s nemesis?)
In the evening’s second half, it looks like this group of six might stay together. They have two clear targets with Devens and Aurora. When Devens wins immunity, Aurora should be an easy boot.
But Wardog has other ideas.
“When people are in a position of power, they want an easy vote,” he says. “And this looks like the easiest vote. But Aurora has no ties in this game. I think it’s time to make a move on the last returning player, and it’s Kelley Wentworth.”
Wardog has secret 10-second conversations with the people on the outs. He pulls Devens, Victoria, and Aurora aside, and says it’s time. Vote Kelley. They’re just happy it’s not them.
On the one hand, this is a brilliant move from Wardog to get rid of the most experienced player in the game, and probably the biggest threat left. Turn on her before she can turn on you. And with Kelley gone, the rest of the merge tribe is a mess of individual operators. Victoria, Devens, Gavin, Aurora, and now Lauren are loners, their allies eliminated. The closest thing there is to an alliance is Ron and Julie. A savvy player like Wardog surely feels like he can out-maneuver the others.
But is it too soon?
With Kelley and David both out of the game, who will the others turn on but Wardog? This whole season we’ve seen the tall poppy get cut – first Joe, then Eric, then Julia, then David, and now Kelley. Wardog could very well be next – especially without his loyal dog pack to keep him safe.
It seemed to me like Wardog had just cobbled together the perfect majority alliance. Why not ride it out for a couple safe votes. And Wentworth looked like the perfect ally. She was a strategic partner. She was a huge target, who probably soaked up more stray votes than anybody left. If someone was going to come for the Lesu 3, wouldn’t they vote her out first?
The biggest question is: Could Wardog beat her at the end? I thought for sure he would be able to; that surely this cast wouldn’t reward a returnee.
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Or maybe they would? Often the very hardest thing for viewers to know is how the contestants themselves perceive people’s winner chances. That’s just the nature of the show. Someone who’s seen as a huge threat to win the game gets voted out early; as a result, they don’t have a big impact on the story; as a result, they’re not a huge character on the show. So it becomes impossible for we viewers to conceive of them as a real contender, even when they were the heavy favorite on the island.
I typically trust Wardog’s strategic instincts. Even when his moves have seemed questionable in the episode, they almost always pay off. Take the Chris boot, which at the time I thought was a mistake. Voting out Chris solidified Wardog’s control on the Manu tribe.
So I’m sure Wardog has a great reason for this vote. And I’m even more sure we’ll be hearing about it soon on his Twitter!
But I still think this was too soon.
Ron wins the Fishy for the second half of the episode, for making the right choice between voting out Aurora and voting out Wentworth. By taking out Wentworth, Ron eliminates a strategic threat; he breaks up the Lesu 3 (even if it was the Lesu 3 breaking itself); and he builds trust with Aurora. An extra vote in your pocket is nice, but a pocket ally is even better.
The danger for Ron is that his chief ally Julie now feels betrayed. And we’ve seen what happens when Julie feels betrayed.
Survivor airs Wednesdays at 8 p.m. ET on CBS.
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