People’s feelings about their own financial situation had the greatest influence on them voting to leave the EU, according to new research.
Academics at the Universities of Bristol, Warwick and ETH Zurich analysed the views of 8,000 prospective voters over a 12-month period before and after the 2016 referendum.
They say UK citizens’ feelings about their incomes were a substantially better predictor of how they planned to vote than their actual income. Those who described themselves as ‘finding it very difficult’ financially were 13% more likely to vote for Brexit compared to those who said they were ‘living comfortably’.
After considering the effects of financial feelings, only the youngest UK citizens – particularly those under 25 – were substantially pro-Remain.
Professor Eugenio Proto, of the Department of Economics at the University of Bristol, said: ‘Our research suggests Brexit was not caused by the attitudes of older people, despite this being a commonly held belief.
People who described themselves as ‘finding it quite difficult’ were 8% more likely than those ‘living comfortably’ to favour leaving the EU. Life satisfaction was also not found to be a major influence on how people voted.
Those with a university degree or equivalent were 16% more likely to vote Remain, while women were 6% more likely than men to want Britain to stay in the EU.
Those who classified themselves as black or mixed race were less likely to vote for Brexit compared to those who described themselves as white. Unemployment, marriage, having children or living in a rural area did not have a significant effect on voting intentions.
The paper, due to be published in the Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organisation, used data collected by Understanding Society – the largest longitudinal household panel study of its kind.
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