This time of year – just days after the Cups weights are announced and with Group One racing getting into full flow – always provides a fascinating conundrum for punters.
Top horses are turning up and their past form suggests that anyone having a bet should take them very seriously when analysing race.
But other factors come into play – chiefly whether the race in question, even if it is a Group One contest, is the horse's main spring target.
If it is, then assume it will be wound up to do itself justice. But if it isn't, then don't expect it to be given a gut-busting run just to finish third or fourth. Owners, trainers and jockeys are often prepared to forgo the bird in the hand if there are two in the bush a few weeks later.
Its a fine line, as stewards are monitoring them to ensure every horse is ridden on its merits. But some will be more forward in condition than others and primed for the day in question,not one of the Cups or the Cox Plate further down the track.
As ever with punting, its a case of Caveat Emptor.
Humidor is a contender in the Makybe Diva Stakes.
Tough field
The Makybe Diva Stakes, a Group One contest which highlights the Flemington card, is a case in point.
The likes of Humidor _ a narrow winner of the Group One Memsie second up a fortnight ago from Kementari, who bids for revenge – Kementari (fourth up in this race) and Comin Through ( a first up winner of the Tramway Handicap in Sydney) should all be in the zone and ready to do themselves justice.
But the likes of The Taj Mahal from Team Williams (a stable whose main targets are usually the Turnbull Stakes, Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melboune Cup later in the spring), David Hayes stayer Harlem, Darren Weir's Tosen Basil and Kings Will Dream (the Caulfield Cup favourite) and Mick Price's Grunt all have targets over further than the Makybe Diva's 1600 metres and whatever they do in this race will almost certainly shape better over the next six weeks.
Tasmanian return
Craig Newitt was once a very familiar face at Flemington when he was one of the leading riders in Melbourne.
But the Tasmanian jockey returned to his home state last year, immediately winning the premiership in his first season.
He makes a return to his old stomping ground on Saturday where he is listed to partner Tassie sprinter I'm Wesley for Glenn Stevenson in the Group 2 sprint, the Bobbie Lewis Quality.
Riding high
Michelle Payne is concentrating more on setting up her training business these days, but the history-making rider is still a player whenever she puts herself up on one of her own.
Sweet Rockette created a good impression when winning first-up at The Valley in August and she and Payne will look to confirm her promise when she runs in the Cap D'Antibes Stakes early in the day.
Brutal progress
Guineas favourite Brutal did well to win against the race pattern on a leader-dominated day at The Valley last month and he steps up to 1400 metres where he will look to show he is right on track for his main target when he takes on some useful looking three-year-olds in the Antler Luggage Plate.
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