Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (2-0 last week, 3-2 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (2-4, 4-8), Anita Marks (4-2, 9-3), Preston Johnson (2-2, 5-5), Mike Clay (0-1, 3-1) and Tyler Fulghum (0-1, 0-3), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (2-0, 5-1), Seth Walder (3-2, 7-3) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (4-2, 7-4) of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from Sunday’s NFL slate.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday.
8:20 p.m. ET game
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 52.5)
Johnson: I think this is a relatively strong spot to sell high on the Packers two weeks into the season. Scoring 43 and 42 points back-to-back weeks to start the season will certainly change public perception, but I’m not ready to completely buy in to an Aaron Rodgers revival yet. Rodgers took advantage of depleted defenses in both weeks — including as many as five in the Lions’ secondary who were out with injuries this past Sunday — but New Orleans is a step up in class. The Saints’ loss to the Raiders in Las Vegas is likely contributing to a cheap buy at -3 as well. Even if Michael Thomas misses his second consecutive game, I project the point spread in this matchup to be -5.6. Davante Adams is questionable as well for Green Bay after getting hurt against Detroit, so if he is unable to go then it’s an even bigger bargain for us on the Saints.
Pick: Saints -3
1 p.m. ET games
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-6, 47.5)
Kezirian: Are the 2-0 Raiders actually good? Call me skeptical after seeing the Saints look pretty pedestrian without Michael Thomas and Drew Brees looking every bit of his 41 years. I imagine we are going to learn a lot more about Las Vegas in this tough situation, having to travel to Foxborough on a short week and facing the sport’s greatest coach. I expect Bill Belichick to remove Raiders standout tight end Darren Waller from Derek Carr’s available options. Plus, Belichick is 51-26 ATS in his career off a loss, so I think we get a good version of New England. The guy is a machine. Plus, Cam Newton should thrive against a porous Raiders defense.
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