It's called the "wise-guy horse" – that one Kentucky Derby runner each year that takes money seemingly out of nowhere, backed by insiders who've been watching every move in the mornings at Churchill Downs.
Of late, the Kentucky Derby, however, has become annually a very chalky exercise. The post-time favorite has won the Derby six years in a row, going back to I'll Have Another, who paid $32.60 at 15-1 odds in 2012.
That run of winning favorites is astounding given such large fields of accomplished, young and relatively unpredictable horses.
At some point, it has to end, right?
There doesn't appear to be a Triple Crown-caliber horse like American Pharoah or Justify in this year's field. Doesn't mean a Triple Crown run can't happen this year. It just means there hasn't been the overwhelming buzz and hype for expected top contenders like Omaha Beach, Roadster and Game Winner that we saw for those horses entering those Derbys.
This field seems to have more parity than some of the others, and while these five horses may not all be "wise-guy" material, each of them has reason to think he has got a shot at the roses on Saturday, potentially paying a lot of money in the process.
Maximum Security
Maximum Security and jockey Luis Saez win the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. (Photo: Leslie Martin/Gulfstream Park)
There is only one unbeaten horse in this field. There is also one only horse that is a true front-runner with early speed. And it is the same horse, one listed at 10-1 on the morning line.
There is uncertainty here, for sure. We don't know how Maximum Security will handle being behind horses, because he's been out front in all four of his wins. He wired the Florida Derby by 3½ lengths on March 30, and it was his only Kentucky Derby prep. He raced to the lead that day and was left alone out front, allowing accomplished jockey Luis Saez – who is back on board for this race – to settle him down on the lead to a manageable pace. It was simple from there, and Maximum Security had plenty on the stretch to cruise to an easy win.
DERBY: Jockey sounds off after losing mount
THE FIELD: Post positions, odds
His other wins prior to that one were by 18, 6½ and 9¾ lengths. This will obviously be much tougher in the Kentucky Derby and the longest distance he has seen, but he could be very dangerous in a field full of stalk-and-close and late-running horses that have not typically sought the early lead. If the field leaves him alone out front, watch out. He has shown what can happen.
By My Standards
By My Standards, a horse running in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, took some time Saturday to run on the Churchill Downs dirt. April 27, 2019
Churchill Downs, Louisville Courier Journal
If there is a true "wise-guy" horse in this field, it's probably going to be trainer Bret Calhoun's By My Standards, the surprising winner of March's Louisiana Derby at 22-1 odds. This is an improving horse clearly coming off his best effort as he enters a Kentucky Derby on his home turf, having being given morning-line odds of 20-1.
By My Standards has been on the board in every race and won his last two, with jockey Gabriel Saez – who has ridden all five of his races – getting a seam in the stretch to take the 1⅛-mile Louisiana Derby with a lot of horse left, beating fellow Derby horse Spinoff to do it. By My Standards is a stronger starter too. He flies out of the gate, which would allow him to establish a nice position for a late rally.
Win Win Win
Win Win Win, a horse running in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, took some time Friday to run on the Churchill Downs dirt. May 3, 2019
Churchill Downs, Louisville Courier Journal
If you like the late-running Tacitus at 10-1 odds, you should love Win Win Win at 15-1. He has turned into a slow-starting, deep closer who actually was supposed to be a sprinter, fast enough to set a track-record time at seven furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs in January. But he came off the pace to do that, and he has continued to come off the pace. He has had some tough trips because of that and will obviously need to start better and receive a lot of luck to navigate the traffic a 20-horse field, but more than any of the other closers in this field he has been flying late in his races and, well, he's probably due a little good fortune.
At the Tampa Bay Derby in March, he closed within 2½ lengths of Tacitus despite having a much tougher trip at 1 1/16 miles, having to check early on an early speed-favoring track. Then at the Blue Grass Stakes in April, he closed quickly to within 3½ lengths of the winner Vekoma to nab second at 1⅛ miles after another tough trip and a track bias. Keeneland was playing toward early speed that week. In both races, Win Win Win was closing fast and could have used the additional distance that he'll get at Churchill Downs.
Spinoff
Spinoff gallops across the Churchill Downs track during a morning workout. May 1, 2019. (Photo: By Pat McDonogh, Courier Journal)
It's difficult to know what to expect from a horse with only two starts since August, but it's not often that you can get one of trainer Todd Pletcher's runners at a price in the Kentucky Derby. The lightly raced Spinoff opened at 30-1 having improved his speed figure each time in four races.
While he lost by ¾ of a length to By My Standards in the Louisiana Derby, he also had to cover a lot more ground that day. Prior to that race, Spinoff won by 11 lengths in Tampa off a layoff of more than six months. He has shown impressive early speed, winning a debut race at five furlongs last year, and some late endurance to go with it. Pletcher didn't bring his horses to Churchill Downs early this year, and that is going to help Spinoff stay overlooked in the Kentucky Derby despite his connections and his upside. He just might be sitting on a big race.
Country House
Country House, a horse running in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, took some time Friday to run on the Churchill Downs dirt. May 3, 2019
Churchill Downs, Louisville Courier Journal
Much like Win Win Win, Country House (opened at 30-1 odds) starts very slowly and closes very fast. And as is the case with Win Win Win, a whole lot is going to need to go right for Country House to steal this race late. Is that likely? No. But he does have the late-running ability to take advantage of a pace meltdown if it happens.
Gentry Estes: 502-582-4205; [email protected]; Twitter: @Gentry_Estes. Support strong local journalism by subscribing today: courier-journal.com/gentrye.
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