If the bookies' lists are to be believed, Winx is already home and hosed and crowned Queen of the Valley for the fourth time in a row, her Cox Plate run next weekend a mere formality on her progress to a history-making triumph in Australia's weight-for-age championship race.
Sure, Saeed Bin Suroor's Benbatl laid down a marker for himself as a serious challenger when he took out the group 1 Caulfield Stakes on Guineas day, and he is the only other horse in the market under double-figure odds.
But could the Coolmore camp of Aidan O'Brien be poised to throw a late spanner in the works in the shape of Rostropovich, an improving northern hemisphere three-year-old who arrived in Australia with the final shipment of European gallopers?
Spanner in the works? Rostropovich’s career-best performance came a couple of months ago in the Irish Derby.Credit:PA
Rostropovich comes out of quarantine on Cox Plate day, and the Irish maestro is considering whether to run the son of Frankel or leave him solely for a tilt at the Melbourne Cup.
O'Brien has until Tuesday morning to make a decision about the half-brother to the high-class 1600-metre horse Zoffany, one of the few who managed to give Frankel a fright when he ran him to less than a length in the group 1 St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot when the pair were three-year-olds.
Rostropovich is a group 2 winner as a two-year-old over 1400 metres but his career-best performance came a couple of months ago in the Irish Derby, when he was a half-length second to the Lloyd Williams-owned and Joseph O'Brien-trained Latrobe in the 2400-metre classic.
He was beaten by the older horses in a group 1, 2400-metre race at Ascot next time out, but bounced back to form when he beat his own age group on Irish Champions weekend in a group 3 race over 2400 metres at Leopardstown.
The tight contours of the Valley – which Winx has on so many occasions amply demonstrated are ideal for her – would hold no terrors for Rostropovich were O'Brien to roll the dice as he has won at Chester in Britain, taking out the listed Dee Stakes this year. Chester is even tighter than the Valley and horses require fluency and balance to act there.
Rostropovich has a similar profile to Adelaide, whom O'Brien sent out to win the Cox Plate in 2014 under Ryan Moore. The latter was a northern hemisphere three-year-old who had, like Rostropovich, run in France and England prior to travelling to Australia.
If he was to take his place in the Cox Plate Rostropovich would add to the intrigue. He would have to carry 56kg, one less than Winx and three less than the older horses such as Benbatl, who would be on 59kg.
''Rostropovich is a grand horse. He’s by Frankel and he’s settled in so well. He’s got a real light weight in the Melbourne Cup, he goes really well. He won at Leopardstown Champions weekend at his last run. This has been the plan for him,'' O'Brien's travelling foreman TJ Comerford said.
And what about the Cox Plate?
''There’s a chance that he will. Aidan’s considering it. It wouldn’t be a bad idea. He’s going through the motions in there [quarantine] and he’s enjoying it and taking it all really well but that’s up to Aidan,'' Comerford said.
Many will remember Highland Reel, who finished third to Winx in her first Cox Plate triumph and then went on to have a globetrotting career as one of the world's best 2400-metre horses.
His full brother, Idaho, was on the shipment that arrived at Werribee alongside Rostropovich, and is due to contest the Melbourne Cup.
But there is a chance he might be given a pipe opener in the Moonee Valley Cup although no decision has been made.
''He’s Melbourne Cup-bound. He looks really well, travelled really well,'' said Comerford about a horse who tends to run better when he is given plenty of time to settle into his foreign surroundings – as he has at Werribee.
''In Japan he had a couple of weeks there and ran fifth or sixth in the Japan Cup and I would put that down to his career best because he ran against some really good horses.
''[Idaho] seems to take that time to settle in. Once he settles in he seems to run a much better race.
''We’ve taken him to Canada a couple of times, to Saratoga and been disappointed with him. He flew in, trained, he flew home but ran bad, bad for him," Comerford said.
''When we took him to Japan he had that time to settle in, the equivalent of here. He’ll have the time here and his aim is the Melbourne Cup.
''He's a brother to Highland Reel. He’s the same. Sweat buckets in the parade. He’s a little bit of a handful. You have to know him.''
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