Who’s in and who’s out of the College Football Playoff after Week 4?
Well, it’s the same group of four teams as last week, but three of the four have new calculated chances of making it, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor.
Last week, the algorithm created by ESPN Analytics had Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Clemson – in that order – as the top four teams most likely to make the College Football Playoff, with Oklahoma and Penn State as the somewhat distant bubble teams. However after Week 4’s action, Notre Dame has reinserted itself into the mix.
While Alabama continues to pull away from the rest of the crowd, everyone else’s chances of making the playoff are constantly being jumbled up. Here’s how the top teams’ playoff chances look four weeks into the season, via ESPN’s Playoff Predictor.
1. Alabama (4-0)
Playoff: 81 percent
Championship game: 58 percent
Win championship: 39 percent
2. Clemson (4-0)
Playoff: 62 percent
Championship game: 30 percent
Win championship: 13 percent
3. Georgia (4-0)
Playoff: 58 percent
Championship game: 31 percent
Win championship: 15 percent
4. Ohio State (4-0)
Playoff: 51 percent
Championship game: 28 percent
Win championship: 13 percent
Judging by these numbers, college football fans could be looking at an Alabama-Georgia rematch in the national championship game. Of course, the semifinal bowl games would have to match up accordingly, but the Crimson Tide and the Bulldogs have the highest chances of advancing to the title game.
In its first real test of the 2018 season, Alabama pounded Texas A&M, 45-23. Led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the Crimson Tide’s lethal offense put up 524 yards against the Aggies, who had 393. The Heisman Trophy candidate threw for four touchdowns and 387 yards – by far the most for him this season.
Alabama’s playoff chances consistently increase after each game, and they’re up from 78 percent last week, along with a bump in making the championship game, up from 55 percent, and defending its title, up slightly from 37 percent. At this rate, Nick Saban’s team will be pushing 100 percent by the end of October.
After rocking Georgia Tech by almost 30 points Saturday, Clemson’s playoff chances spiked up from 50 percent last week, which previously had the team in the No. 4 spot. After beating Texas A&M, 28-26, in Week 2, the Tigers have likely already defeated their most challenging opponent of the season – or at least until the ACC title game. Along with making the playoffs, their chances of getting into the championship game are up from 22 percent after Week 3 and winning it all increased from just 9 percent. If Clemson keeps destroying its ACC opponents by double digits, its playoff berth is all but guaranteed.
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