Could the contract Scott Boras creatively worked out with the Mariners for his client Yusei Kikuchi provide the framework for another of his clients, Bryce Harper — and/or non-client Manny Machado — to sign a deal that would be both record breaking yet appealing to more potential teams, notably the Dodgers (and perhaps Nationals) for Harper and Machado for the Yankees?
The Kikuchi contract works this way: He has a three-year, $43 million deal ($14.3 million annually). After the 2021 season, the Mariners can institute a four-year, $66 million extension. If Seattle refuses to do so, Kikuchi can either trigger a $13 million 2022 option or declare free agency. Thus, his deal could be the three years at $43 million, has a guarantee of no less than four years at $56 million if Kikuchi picks up his option and could max out at seven years at $109 million if the Mariners pick up the four-year option phase.
Now, Harper and Machado might receive 10-year-ish deals at record totals from teams with whom they are interested in playing.
But say they are not getting that or say they want to seduce the Yankees, Dodgers and others deeper into the conversation at a time when neither financial superpower appears willing to do a super-long deal, even with a prime-aged star.
How about the Kikuchi Structure (with a few twists)?
It doesn’t have to be these salaries, but what if a team were to offer a contract to Harper and/or Machado that would guarantee no less than three years at $114 million and could max out at 10 years at $400 million?
Keep in mind that with Kikuchi and Jake Arrieta (Phillies), in particular, Boras has demonstrated inventiveness to try to get contracts to potentially grow to a level he envisions as appropriate for his clients. Let’s take a step-by-step look at what this could look like:
1. Three years at $114 million that would pay $34 million in each of the first two years and $46 million in Year 3.
Why it is good for Harper/Machado: The $34 million immediately puts Harper/Machado above Mike Trout for the highest salary ever given in any one season to a position player, and the $46 million tops the $45 million record (albeit with deferrals) that Stephen Strasburg receives on the final year of his seven-year deal (negotiated by Boras with the Nationals). The $38 million annual average blows away Zack Greinke’s $34.42 million record. If the contract ends here, Harper/Machado would go back into free agency after their age-28 season, still young enough to score big future dollars if they remain stars.
Why it is good for a team: Yes, it is a record annual value, but just for the prime years of 26-28.
2. At this point the team can trigger a four-year, $166 million tack on, which if accepted would bring the contract to seven years at $280 million.
Why it is good for Harper/Machado: If accepted, Harper/Machado would become the first players with a contract that averaged more than $40 million per season and still have a chance, after their age-32 season, to go back into free agency.
Why it is good for the team: A club would have had three years with players who come without pristine reputations. Thus, three years to learn if they want to extend another four seasons with Harper/Machado.
3. If the team doesn’t offer the extension, Harper/Machado can either declare for free agency or trigger a one-year, $46 million option that would take their four-year total to $160 million.
Why it is good for Harper/Machado: Harper/Machado either get free agency after their age-28 season or trigger an option which gives them a $40 million average for the four seasons then get to be free agents after their age-29 campaign.
Why it is good for the team: Even if the single-year option is launched by the player, the team will have had only under-30 seasons at a time when organizations want to avoid long-term commitments for players in their 30s.
4. If the team option were accepted that covers through an age-32 season, at that point the team can offer an additional three-year option worth $120 million. That would make the total from the outset 10 years at $400 million.
Why it is good for Harper/Machado: If accepted Harper/Machado would become the first $400 million players, essentially getting an amount they were shooting for initially but through a series of options.
Why it is good for the team: The option would only be offered if the team wanted to extend the association, which would mean the organization felt the players were still productive. But it also would likely coincide when the players could be approaching historic milestones that would be marketable by the organization. For example, if Harper and/or Machado averaged 35 homers through those first seven seasons, they would both be in range to eclipse 500 homers during that final three-year extension.
5. Harper/Machado could reject the second multi-year extension. If so, free agency could be declared or a one-year $50 million player option triggered.
Why it is good for Harper/Machado: Harper/Machado would either be a free agent after pocketing $280 million or would become the first player at the $50 million level for any season. If the $50 million were accepted, the total from the beginning would be eight years at $330 million, exceeding the current largest total outlay — the $325 million, 13-year deal of Giancarlo Stanton — but doing it with a $41.25 annual average.
Why is it good for the team: If a club agreed to the first extension, it means it understood the potential of this becoming an eight-year deal and was fine with that. Machado/Harper would still only play that eighth season in their age-33 season, the same age that Lorenzo Cain, Matt Carpenter and Josh Donaldson will be in 2019.
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