This year’s October brackets are very different. On the AL side: the 108-win Boston Red Sox, the 103-win defending champion Houston Astros, 197 more wins worth of wild-card entries, and a sneaky Cleveland Indians team a year removed from 101 wins.
Meanwhile, the NL story is one of parity, as evidenced by the need for two Game 163s to settle seedings. Even after the extra games, the five NL entries are bunched between 90 and 96 wins.
How will the month play out? Here's what the numbers say:
National League
Colorado entered Monday's wild-card game with the Coors Field question hanging over its head. Despite finishing third in runs, the Rockies offense was just 21st in scoring on the road, and — after defeating the Chicago Cubs in a 2-1 extra-innings thriller — will be lacking home-field advantage in every round. No surprise: the Rockies own the worst ERA among NL postseason clubs.
As the wild-card winner, the Rockies will face the Milwaukee Brewers, who roared down the stretch, winning nine of their last 10. They’ve hit the fourth-most homers in the majors, headlined by peaking MVP candidate Christian Yelich.
The Brewers’ soft spot is a pedestrian five-inning-a-night rotation, but a lethal bullpen keeps them dangerous. Josh Hader (15.9 K/9, 2.50 ERA), Jeremy Jeffress (1.29 ERA) and a resurgent Corey Knebel (no runs, 32/3 K/BB over his last 15 innings) can eat four innings in any close contest. Milwaukee should advance past the Rockies.
The Atlanta Braves rode youth, a fast start and weak competition to their NL East title. They struck out fewer times than any of their NL postseason competitors, finishing seventh in overall contact and fifth in batting average. But they also finished 19th in both walks and homers, suggesting that they’ll need good luck on balls in play to keep up with the NL West champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Braves rotation outpitched its peripheral numbers all season, feasting on three bottom-10 offenses in the NL East. Atlanta lost five of seven to L.A. during the regular season and will suffer a similar fate without a home-field advantage.
The July acquisition of Manny Machado paid big dividends down the stretch for the Dodgers, who led the majors in scoring in September. They ranked second overall in home runs and first in walks.
Just as important, their pitchers topped the NL in strikeouts and limiting walks, thanks to a rotation that finished with the NL’s best ERA.
Clayton Kershaw, fast-rising Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill match up very well with their postseason competition on paper. Though a volatile bullpen suggests the Dodgers may need to lean more heavily on their starters in October, they should have enough to get past the Braves and then the Brewers in the NLCS. Barely.
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