Here are 10 observations from the slate of college football games in Week 12
USC can't afford the status quo: The meltdown scenario for Clay Helton seems to be underway after an astounding 34-27 loss to UCLA on Saturday. Though the preference of the Trojans’ administration has always been to keep Helton, whose contract they extended after he won the Pac-12 title last year, the fans and boosters have been off the bandwagon for awhile. The problem is, Helton isn’t doing much to make the case to the masses that he can get USC back into the strata of elite programs. In fact, at 5-6 and with Notre Dame coming next week, it’s far more likely the Trojans will be home for the holidays.
Helton is a solid person and has been a much-needed grown-up at a program that got into a hole by hiring immature coaches in Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian. But he doesn’t have that “it factor” you need at one of the few places in the country where you have the resources to win a national championship. Whatever it costs for USC to make a change, you wonder at this point if the Trojans can afford not to fire him — especially with Chip Kelly across town having just gotten his big breakthrough win at their expense.
Notre Dame is going to get its first playoff berth: Give the Fighting Irish credit for taking all the drama out of whether they’re going to make the College Football Playoff. After a fully dominant 36-3 win over Syracuse in Yankee Stadium, all that stands between Notre Dame and a semifinal berth is a trip to USC next Saturday night. Don’t buy into the brand hype or the narrative about whether all the air miles Notre Dame has logged with multiple trips to the West Coast will hurt them. The truth is, this game is a total mismatch in personnel and coaching, and only a complete choke job by the Fighting Irish could keep them out of the playoff at this point. So congrats to Brian Kelly and to ESPN, which will love the ratings boost of having the Fighting Irish in its big bonanza on Dec. 29.
Neither Urban Meyer nor his team looks well: The Buckeyes somehow escaped College Park with a 52-51 overtime win after stopping a two-point conversion, but the most potent images were of Meyer hunched over seemingly in significant pain several times after over-the-top outbursts of emotion. Meyer talked candidly with Yahoo! Sports last month about his health issues stemming from a congenital arachnoid cyst on his brain that he’s been dealing with for several years. Meyer attributed some of his pained looks on the sideline to that condition, and it certainly raises the specter of him walking away like he did in 2010 when he cited health issues in his departure from Florida.
But that’s a decision for another day. In the meantime, Ohio State is quite fortunate to be 10-1 heading into the Michigan game and technically still alive for the Big Ten championship and, perhaps more remotely, the playoff.
The bottom line is, Ohio State passes neither the résumé test nor the eye test right now after giving up 535 yards to Maryland including 298 on the ground to running back Anthony McFarland. Even if the Buckeyes find a way to beat Michigan at home, they haven't played a game since beating Tulane 49-6 back in September where you come away thinking this is a team that could challenge for a title. With such an inept defense, they’re essentially a discount version of Oklahoma. Ohio State was stuck at No. 10 this week in the CFP rankings for that very reason, and it would need total chaos to get serious consideration.
Don’t overreact to look-ahead spots: This is the time of year where every move made by the College Football Playoff contenders will get scrutinized, particularly in a situation where the margins could be very small between several teams for that No. 4 spot.
On the other hand, it’s hard to get too worked up when teams that have been playing at a high level all season come out a little flat against lesser opponents in Week 12 when they’ve got their biggest games coming up over the next two weeks.
That certainly seemed to be the case with No. 1 Alabama, which likely did not enjoy Nick Saban’s halftime speech very much after puttering around with The Citadel for 30 minutes. Though Alabama predictably pulled away to win 50-17 and remains undefeated heading into the Iron Bowl, the fact it was tied 10-10 at halftime was perhaps the most shocking score of the year in all of college football. It also validated Saban’s decision to play quarterback Tua Tagovailoa after a week of talk in the media about whether it would be better to sit him out against a 50-point underdog after getting banged around a bit the last few games. Not only did Tagovailoa play and play well (he was 18-for-22 for 340 yards and three touchdowns), but Alabama kind of needed him.
You can also give a little of a pass to Michigan, which didn’t seem to have a ton of intensity in the first half against Indiana and found itself trailing 17-15 before gutting out a 31-20 win. Perhaps the biggest development was that Michigan’s backup kicker, freshman Jake Moody went 6-for-6 on field goals replacing Quinn Nordin, who was ill. Nordin hasn’t been great this season (he’s 11-for-16), so that could be something to watch for next week in what will likely be a close, low-scoring game.
Clemson, which has basically dominated everyone since September, also might have also been caught looking ahead a bit. The Tigers trailed Duke 6-0 early and didn’t get much going in the first half but cruised to a 35-6 win to close out the ACC season. Clemson needs only to beat two unranked teams, South Carolina and Pitt, to clinch a fourth consecutive playoff bid.
Change seems likely at Colorado: The report from a Denver television station earlier in the week that Colorado planned to part ways with Mike MacIntyre at the end of the season may be premature, but that doesn’t mean it was inaccurate. Though few considered the possibility MacIntyre might land on the hot seat at 5-0, the Buffaloes have really fallen apart since the midway point of the season and Saturday’s 30-7 home loss to Utah certainly didn’t bolster his case.
Despite the $10 million buyout MacIntyre would be owed, there’s a strong feeling in the industry he needed to at least win one of the last two games to keep his job. Colorado finishes at Cal next Saturday, but home losses by a combined score of 61-14 the last two weeks don’t give MacIntyre much of a leg to stand on if athletics director Rick George decides it’s time to move on.
Colorado is a difficult job, and MacIntyre practically worked a miracle in 2016 to get the Buffaloes to 10-4 and into the Pac-12 championship game, earning him some major national coach of the year awards including from the Associated Press. However, if you remove that year from the equation, he’s just 6-38 in the Pac-12.
It’s not the easiest call for Colorado, but the favorable hiring market this year might tip the scales toward change.
Pitt is a feel-good story: After losing to North Carolina back on Sept. 22, you’d have been hard-pressed to envision Pittsburgh playing in an ACC championship game. And while it would be folly to go overboard with praise for the Panthers and Pat Narduzzi this season, they get full credit for taking advantage of a down Coastal division and clinching the title Saturday with a 34-13 win at Wake Forest. Pitt has actually played solid football for the last six weeks or so, losing only to Notre Dame, 19-14, on a late touchdown. Notably, quarterback Kenny Pickett hasn’t thrown an interception since Oct. 6, and the Panthers have a strong one-two punch in the backfield with Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall (1,900 yards combined). While the 7-4 Panthers will be a big underdog to Clemson in Charlotte, they’re potentially a viable playoff spoiler.
Justin Fuente should consider a drastic change: When Virginia Tech hired Fuente from Memphis, part of the deal was that the Hokies’ legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster would remain on his staff. Foster has been at Virginia Tech since 1987 and has run the defense since 1995. But arranged marriages are sometimes tricky, and there’s no way around the fact Foster’s defense has been outright poor this year. The last four games, Virginia Tech has given up 339 yards to a Miami team that's really struggled recently, 654 yards to Pitt, 396 yards to Boston College and 465 to Georgia Tech. Though the blame for Virginia Tech’s 4-6 record goes to many places, including Fuente, his offense doesn’t look the same as it did at Memphis and nothing about the way his team plays seems particularly comfortable. Fuente needs to make some changes going into his fourth year and make this program fully his. Though it would be politically tricky, to say the least, if one of those changes was Foster, it’s something he probably needs to consider because what’s going on right now isn’t working at all.
Nebraska is coming: By next weekend, Nebraska is going to have either the happiest 4-8 fan base or the happiest 5-7 fan base in the country. Which one doesn’t really matter. The point is, things have turned after it seemed like the Cornhuskers just couldn’t get a win to save their lives for the first six weeks. The record in Scott Frost’s first season never mattered much. The measuring stick was whether you could see improvement and direction, and there’s no doubt Frost has succeeded on both points. Saturday’s 9-6 tough-it-out win over Michigan State showed another gear for Nebraska after its offense had largely been responsible for beating Minnesota and Illinois and hanging until the end with Ohio State. Frost still has a long way to go in building the program, but Nebraska fans should be very happy with what they've seen recently.
UCF controls the Group of Five: Saturday was a showcase for the UCF program from the beginning with College GameDay on campus to a 38-13 win over Cincinnati in ABC’s prime-time slot. UCF has not been a great defensive team this year, but it rose to the occasion here by winning key third/fourth downs and generating three turnovers. The Knights, which have the nation’s longest winning streak at 23 straight, will be heavy favorites to go unbeaten again versus South Florida and then whoever they play in the American Athletic Conference title game. Notably, their opponent in that game could very well be Memphis, which has lost to UCF by razor-thin margins in their last two meets. The Tigers could clinch their division by beating Houston at home on Friday.
Should UCF slip up, Utah State is waiting in the wings for a bid to a New Year’s Six game as the highest-ranked Group of Five team. The Aggies escaped in a wild game Saturday, 29-24, when Colorado State’s “Hail Mary” game-winning pass was overturned because the receiver had gone out of bounds before the catch. Utah State is 10-1 and plays at Boise State next Saturday.
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