Researchers at the University of Sydney have proposed the coronavirus can be managed if draconian counter-measures are adopted early on in the epidemic. The news comes after the UK and India issued nationwide lockdowns this week to curb the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19).
The research carried out in Sydney found isolation measures are most effective if between 80 and 90 percent of the country self-isolates.
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The data study was based on Australia’s population of more than 25 million and found isolation below 70 percent will likely be unfruitful.
Pandemic modelling expert Professor Mikhail Prokopenko said: “If we want to control the spread of COVID-19 – rather than letting the disease control us – at least 80 percent of the Australian population must comply with strict social distancing measures for at least four months.
“However, if 90 percent of the population complies, then the duration could be as short as 13 to 14 weeks – meaning if we began tomorrow we could expect a control of COVID-19 by July.”
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He added: “Conversely, if less than seventy percent of the population is adopting social distancing measures, we cannot suppress the spread of the pandemic and any social distancing could be a fruitless effort.”
According to Professor Prokopenko, there is a clear trade-off between the adopted measures and the longevity of the disease.
Stricter control adopted in the early stages of the disease’s outbreak will reduce how long people are affected by it.
On the other hand, Professor Prokopenko said: “Laxer protocols could mean a longer, more drawn out and ineffective struggle against COVID-19.”
China has already proven the effectiveness of lockdown measures after the coronavirus first appeared in the country’s Hubei Province last November.
Laxer protocols could mean a longer, more drawn out and ineffective struggle
Professor Mikhail Prokopenko, University of Sydney
Entire cities were cut off from the outside world with no access by air, car or rail.
Although nearly 82,000 people have contracted COVID-19 in China in the last four months, on Wednesday, authorities have confirmed the second consecutive day without local infections.
China’s National Health Commission said all new cases were linked to outside travellers.
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Since the coronavirus appeared in China, the pathogen has spread to virtually every continent, save for Antarctica.
As of 8.27am GMT on March 26, more than 472,000 people have contracted COVID-19.
At least 21,313 people have also died since November.
Professor Prokopenko said: “There’s good reason for imposing tough measures early on.
“The longer we delay the peak, the more time our healthcare system has to prepare for it by accessing more resources such as ICU beds, ventilators, antivirals and trained health workers.”
Professor Prokopenko did note, however, not all isolation methods are effective in curbing COVID-19.
School closures, for instance, did not appear to limit the number of coronavirus infections among older adults.
Instead, there was a slight uptick in the number of infections among children during Australia’s epidemic peak.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has told MPs yesterday he is confident the worst of the coronavirus will be over after a three-week lockdown.
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