The Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers, each with lopsided victories Sunday, will play a tiebreaker game Monday to determine the winner of the NL Central. The winner gets home-field advantage throughout the NL playoffs, and won’t have to play again until Thursday.
This year marks the first time in baseball history two divisions will be determined by one-game playoff. And it’s the first time since MLB went to a two-wild card format in 2012 that a division winner was determined by playoff.
Breaking down the one-game playoff between the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs:
For starters
Brewers (Jhoulys Chacin, 15-8, 3.56 ERA) vs. Cubs (Jose Quintana, 13-11, 4.09 ERA), 1:05 ET, ESPN. The winner will play host to the wild-card game winner in Game 1 of the National League Division Series on Thursday. The loser plays host to either the Dodgers or Rockies in Tuesday's NL wild card game.
27 outs
It's familiar dominance vs. the unknown. And there's no telling who might have the edge.
In starting Quintana, the Cubs are handing the ball to a lefty who's posted a 2.17 ERA over 37 1/3 innings against the Brewers this season. Most notably, he's been the starting pitcher in three of the six shutouts Chicago posted against them this season. At Wrigley Field this season, Quintana has been a little less sharp, producing a 4.28 ERA and giving up 15 homers, compared to 3.94 and 10 on the road.
As for the Brewers? Perhaps it was just gamesmanship that manager Craig Counsell opted not to name his starting pitcher on Sunday – waiting until Monday morning. Jhoulys Chacin, who made an NL-high 34 starts, won 15 games and posted a 3.56 ERA, will take the ball.
But the one-game playoff format is ripe for experimentation, and Counsell has significant options. In a crucial game against St. Louis last week, Counsell went the "extreme opener" route, starting lefty reliever Dan Jennings, who retired Matt Carpenter and then hit the showers.
A parade of eight more relievers followed and the Brewers gutted out a 6-4 win. It should be noted that Monday's game is a regular season game and both teams will have all the spoils of the expanded September roster.
What's more, Counsell was able to avoid his three top relievers in Sunday's 11-0 rout of the Detroit Tigers to keep their division title hopes alive. Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel are rested and ready, Hader presumably for a two-inning stint. Looking at the playoff big picture, Counsell could have rolled the dice, held Chacin back for a potential NLDS Game 1 start and see if a conga line of fireballers alone could win this one.
The risk-reward of that strategy is significant, however: Burn up the bullpen Monday and lose, and suddenly you're faced with a one-game wild card knockout game with a compromised staff.
Keep an eye on…
Christian Yelich. Who else? He somehow turned a tight NL MVP race into a runaway in just one week, thanks to stretches like this:
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