The A-League expansion bids are in and the ball is now the Football Federation Australia's court to decide which two teams will join the competition in 2019-20.
Canberra surprised many by simply being one of the 10 clubs shortlisted in July, but they've been gathering momentum and are now emerging as genuine contenders.
FFA boss David Gallop and chairman Steven Lowy will be weary of Canberra’s small population.
The easy option for the FFA is to expand into Australia's two largest cities Sydney and Melbourne, where the most eyeballs are to appease broadcasters and crowd sizes.
The bolder but ultimately correct decision is expand the game into new a market and back the small but powerful bid in Canberra.
Here are the four deciding factors that will make or break Canberra's bid.
POPULATION
The FFA have said they will not expand into areas with a population of less than a million people, and to be fair, it's for a pretty good reason.
Have you heard the expression 'Once bitten, twice shy? Well in this case for the FFA it would be 'Twice bitten, thrice shy.
The governing body have previously overseen two expansion disasters and they are keen to avoid a third.
The first was the North Queensland Fury who promised the world upon entry to the A-League in 2009, but ultimately delivered an atlas when they were bundled out due to financial instability after just two seasons.
The second calamity was Gold Coast United, which went bankrupt under Clive Palmer and dissolved in 2012 after just three seasons.
The Gold Coast population is 580,000 and Townsville is just 190,000. Canberra sits roughly in the middle at 405,000.
Needless to say the FFA's biggest concern with the ACT is its size. But the Canberra bid are claiming to represent a southern New South Wales catchment of 1.2 million people.
It's the same figures used by the ACT Brumbies but will the FFA believe they'll come by thousands from Griffith and Cooma to watch games at Canberra Stadium? It's 'thricely' unlikely.
READY TO GO
If the Canberra can get past the population hurdle then the bid stands a serious chance because they are the real deal in almost every other facet.
Given they could find 11 competitive players, Canberra would be ready for round one this season in October.
As bid leader Michael Caggiano said on Friday – Canberra are the only 'ready to go bid' and he's right.
They're financially backed by the ACT government and the private sector. They have a stadium at Bruce screaming to be used in the summer. And they already have 7000 members.
The only thing missing is a jersey, logo, team song and as aforementioned – players.
They're also going to implement a 50 plus one” ownership model which will see members retain overall control of the club, and that will intrigue the FFA.
Throw in the support of deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, who the bid have been lobbying to secure federal funds because his Riverina electorate falls in the "catchment" area, and you can turn on the lights at Canberra Stadium because we're ready to rock and roll!
OVERSEAS PRESENCE
This one is the real deal-breaker.
The Canberra bid have been in talks for months to form an alliance with major European clubs, but so far haven't been able to secure an official partnership.
That's not to say it won't happen. Clubs forming international partnerships to share resources and players don't just happen overnight.
But if they can get a signature on the dotted line in the next month it could move them up three or four spots on the FFA's pecking order.
Canberra have signed AFC Wimbledon – the most successful fan-owned club in the United Kingdon – chief operating officer Joe Palmer to their advisory board and that's a good start.
But a genuine partnership with a Champions League club – now that'll make people sit up and take notice.
MONEY MONEY MONEEEEEEY!
The real money in sports – just ask the Americans – doesn't come from bums on seats but eyeballs on screens.
Broadcasters hold huge sway when it comes to the big decisions in sport, even expansion decisions, and they want to see more derbies which means more teams in Sydney and Melbourne.
This was a sticking point in Canberra's unsuccessful bid 10 years ago but there's talk the Canberra bid may have connections to the Asian broadcast market.
If that's true then they might just have a trump card to play when it matters most!
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