The ghosts of free-agent signings past have been as big a part of this offseason as the current free agents.
The two big targets — Bryce Harper and Manny Machado — have yet to sign as the Winter Meetings begin.
But Robinson Cano, who received the top free-agent deal of the 2013-14 offseason (10 years, $240 million), had become such a financial concern to the Mariners that they made him more appetizing to trade by attaching him to elite closer Edwin Diaz.
The Yankees inquired if the Mariners would take Jacoby Ellsbury, who signed the third-largest deal of 2013-14 (seven years, $153 million), and still absorb additional dollars of Cano’s pact.
Seattle found the Mets more appealing — though it had to eat $20 million of Cano’s contract and take the remainder of pacts belonging to Jay Bruce, who signed the ninth-biggest deal last offseason (three years, $39 million), and Anthony Swarzak (two years, $16 million last offseason). The Mets were looking to add offense because Yoenis Cespedes, who signed the largest pact of the 2016-17 offseason (four years, $110 million), is expected to miss at least half of next year following surgery on both ankles.
Cano has five top-six MVP finishes. Paul Goldschmidt, who has four, was traded to the Cardinals before his walk season despite being the face of the Diamondbacks. The team did not stretch to ink him long term — in part because Zack Greinke, who signed the second-biggest deal of the 2015-16 offseason (six years, $206.5 million), takes up such a large percentage of the payroll already.
Arizona is diligently working to also move Greinke, but will have to eat money and/or take back bad contracts because over the next three years — including an unpaid portion of signing bonus and trade kicker — he would be owed $106.5 million.
There had been an expectation the Cubs would be significant players in this market. But president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told Chicago reporters his club is limited in free agency — “You just can’t keep shopping without making things fit for your roster and your payroll.”
Their payroll, short and long term, includes free-agent deals gone badly: Yu Darvish, the second largest (six years, $126 million) of last offseason, and Jason Heyward, the third largest (eight years, $184 million) from the 2015-16 offseason, and one that has gone great, Jon Lester, who signed the second largest deal (six years, $155 million) of the 2014-15 season.
I think the best players should be paid lavishly. But I also think the current system is terrible — notably that players are artificially held down during the first six or seven years of their major league service by pre-arbitration and arbitration rules. Those are often the most productive seasons. Thus, by the time players reach free agency, they are at an age in which teams are shunning them or offering less than in the past, having learned over time that this is generally a bad gamble.
Note the Cardinals, who were associated with Harper and Machado, instead traded for their desired big bat (Goldschmidt) two years after signing a so far disastrous five-year, $82.5 million pact with Dexter Fowler (the third largest of the 2015-16 offseason).
The Nationals have, to date, signed the biggest free-agent pact this offseason — six years at $140 million with lefty Patrick Corbin. But Washington has a positive experience going to the top of the free-agent starter market. Max Scherzer (seven years, $210 million) was the top free agent contract of the 2014-15 offseason.
In fact — with Harper and Machado almost certain to top $200 million and probably $300 million — Washington’s accord with Scherzer is as great a success story a team has had with one of the eight free-agent contracts signed for more than $200 million:
1. Alex Rodriguez ($275 million) missed a year due to a drug suspension, released with more than a year to go on the contract.
2. A-Rod ($252 million) traded by the Rangers after three years.
T3. Albert Pujols ($240 million) an albatross to the Angels and Cano traded after five years by the Mariners.
5. Price ($217 million) rebounded from disaster to World Series hero for the Red Sox.
6. Prince Fielder ($214 million) traded after two seasons by the Tigers and had to stop playing due to a serious neck ailment after five seasons of a nine-year contract.
7. Scherzer’s four seasons as a National: two Cy Youngs, one second, one fifth.
8. Greinke.
But even if the threshold is dropped to $60 million, the results have not been great. There have been 41 free-agent deals of at least that amount the past five offseasons. Seven have been traded (Cano, Justin Upton, Brian McCann, Mike Leake, James Shields, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Santana) with removing the dollars from the payroll always a substantial, if not the key reason. Two have been released (Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez). One is buried in the minors (Yasmany Tomas). That is 11 of the 41.
I would categorize five as great successes so far for the team: Scherzer, Nationals; Lester, Cubs; J.D. Martinez, Red Sox; Lorenzo Cain, Brewers; Justin Turner, Dodgers. You can stretch to include Price, because he was so central to Boston’s title this year; Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees; Aroldis Chapman, Yankees; Kenley Jansen, Dodgers; and the Mets’ three-year, $75 million pact with Cepedes that he opted out of after one season. The Mets then signed him to a four-year, $110 pact that fits most of the rest of the 41 contracts: Deals teams would walk away from for nothing if they didn’t have to pay another cent (think Heyward, Ellsbury, Darvish, Fowler, Chris Davis, Eric Hosmer, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, etc).
All of these ghosts of free-agency past contract are influencing how teams are acting now.
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