That’s the big question as a blinkered Cracksman tries to end his career in sensational style as a champion at Ascot.
What an afternoon lies ahead as the eighth British Champions Day takes place, featuring some of the best horses on planet earth chasing nearly £4.5m in prize-money – and it’s all live on ITV.
There are four Group 1 races, but the main event is the Champion Stakes at 3.50.
Cracksman was out of this world in the race last year, cruising to a seven-length win.
That meant people expected even better this term but it hasn’t been the case.
He has bagged two Group 1s, which is hardly suggesting he has lost the plot completely but issues emerged in his Coronation Cup success at Epsom when he looked moody and continued when he was defeated by Poet’s Word in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes.
After that I suggested on ITV if he was a normal horse you would throw headgear on straight away, something some dismissed as crazy.
Well he wears blinds today, so it's good to know John Gosden took my plea on board! Johnny G knows I’m on side.
I truly hope Cracksman hacks up, as I think it has been unfortunate to have missed two Arcs because he’s housed in the stable of dual winner Enable. He deserved a ‘crack’ at the Paris feature.
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Those taking Cracksman on include Crystal Ocean, the King George runner-up who was stuffed by Enable on the all-weather when last seen, and Capri, who returned after a break with a fair fifth in the Foy before a fine fifth in the Arc itself. Capri is going to have a serious 2019.
However, if Cracksman is anywhere near his best he will destroy the field and retire one of the finest colts of recent times. I hope he does.
On a mouthwatering card, mile-and-a-quarter sensation Roaring Lion steps back in trip to a mile for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.
Historically there have been great winners of this Group 1, but it has been lacking one since Frankel in 2011. Roaring Lion would be worthy, but the distance has to be a concern, as does juice in the ground.
Wins in the Eclipse, Juddmonte International and Irish Champion Stakes stamps Roaring Lion as the one to beat, but I would not want to back him here. I hope he ends up in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on dirt at Churchill Downs.
Recoletos is a great each-way bet. The French raider landed the Moulin and loves a straight mile.
He goes with cut and has a turn of foot to worry all of these. Of the others, Lord Glitters will love any mud, while Addeybb looked a monster early in the season and might yet prove to be one. But he’s still going to have to make great strides to beat Recoletos.
The day kicks off with Stradivarius, the millionaire who has had such a fantastic season for Gosden, in the Group 2 Stayers’.
It still stuns people when I tell them until his last run at York — when raised 2lb to 120 — Stradivarius had officially not improved since he finished third in this 12 months ago behind Order of St George and Torcedor.
That said, Stradivarius can only beat what is put in front of him, and he has done that rather well.
I still think new kid on the block Flag Of Honour will give him a run for his money. Trained by Aidan O’Brien, the three-year-old has won his last three starts including the Irish St Leger. Interestingly his hat-trick has come on better ground, and only time will tell whether that is relevant or not.
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The Group 1 Sprint could be at the mercy of The Tin Man, who was awesome at Haydock last time and Roaring Lion’s jockey, Oisin Murphy, keeps the mount.
In an open heat, though, I’ll be looking for a big each-way run from Tasleet, who chased home Librisa Breeze in 2017.
Tasleet ran a shocker for William Haggas behind The Tin Man at Haydock, but he has always suggested there is a big one in him.
Gosden’s Lah Ti Dar should take all the beating in the Fillies & Mares. She ran a corker in the St Leger and the winner Kew Gardens was far from disgraced in the Arc.
However my hopes fare, just enjoy a sizzling day of sport. Indeed, a day for champions.
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