Joseph O'Brien and Charlie Appleby, who have trained the past two Melbourne Cup winners Rekindling and Cross Counter, have hit upon what seems to be a winning formula for Flemington triumph.
Find a high quality three year old northern hemisphere stayer, see how little weight he gets in the Cup, bring him to Australia fit and ready to run and fly home with millions of dollars.
Racing Victoria handicapper Greg Carpenter studies the results closer than any man, given he is responsible for allocating Cup weights – and he will now review how he looks at the burdens he gives northern hemisphere three year olds.
''It will cause me to rethink how I look at their form and handicap them in the future. It will mean that I go back and look at their lead up races and as we get more of these horses running we will have more data to judge them on.''
Only half a dozen horses have competed in the Cup as northern hemisphere three year olds.
In 2007 Aidan O'Brien's Mahler carried 50.5 kilos and finished third to Efficient. The same trainer's Alessandro Volta was well beaten behind Viewed, also carrying 50.5, in 2008 while a third O'Brien runner, Bondi Beach, was 16th in 2015 when he shouldered 52.5 kilos in the historic Cup won by Prince of Penzance.
The day after: Charlie Appleby (left) and strapper Tash Eaton of team Godolphin pose with Cross Counter.Credit:AAP
Rekindling, with 51kg, scored in 2017, and Cross Counter with the same weight landed the prize on Tuesday when another Aidan O'Brien-trained three year old, Rostropovitch, also carrying 51, ran fifth.
Whether they (the handicap weights) are looked at and reviewed is not for me to say. It's a tough challenge for a three year old to come down here full stop.
As Carpenter says, ''it's a pretty small data base so far but I will look at the way we judge their form in future years, look very closely at the weighting put on their lead up races especially against their own age group.''
He pointed out that of that group only Bondi Beach, who had won the group 1 English St Leger after a protest, had been successful at group 1 level before coming to Melbourne.
''Cross Counter had only had five runs, he was very inexperienced. The race he won at Goodwood only had four runners. Mahler had had seven starts before he came here, Alessandro Volta nine runs, Bondi Beach had run only five times, Rekindling nine and Rostropovich was the most experienced with 13 previous races," Carpenter said.
Northern hemisphere three year olds in Australia at this time of year in a weight for age (wfa) 3200 metre race would have carried 55.5 kilos, so Cross Counter and Rekindling got in 4.5 kilos under. But the Cup is a handicap. Their 51 kilos was the equivalent of the older Marmelo, who ran second on Tuesday, carrying the racing weight of 55.5, which he did.
Only Best Solution (two kilos under wfa) Ace High (three kilos), Magic Circle (3.5) and Muntahaa (four) were closer to weight for age than the two three year olds.
Appleby said the weight allowance was there ''for a reason'.
''In that calibre of race you generally need the experience but when you have a class three-year-old he can outweigh that experience with his class and that is what he showed yesterday.
''Whether they (the handicap weights) are looked at and reviewed is not for me to say. It's a tough challenge for a three year old to come down here full stop.''
With Peter Ryan
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