The Fresno State Bulldogs (3-4) will square off against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (5-3) at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu Saturday – 9 p.m. PT (Sunday, midnight ET).
We analyze the Fresno State-Hawaii odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.
Fresno State at Hawaii: Three things you need to know
- Fresno State is averaging 33.3 PPG (36th) while allowing 31.0 (95th). Road-game performances at USC and Air Force (both of which sport good offenses) suggest the Bulldogs to be more representative of a defense ranking near 75th.
- FSU has won seven of its last eight meetings with Hawaii. That includes a 50-20 triumph over the Rainbow Warriors a year ago.
- Hawaii ranks 20th in scoring (36.6 PPG) and 120th in defense (35.4 PPG allowed). The Warriors are a minus-13 in turnover margin – but they’ve timed their miscues well. Thirteen giveaways have come in wins. The defense is a concern, as its been trending the wrong way of late. UH has yielded 500 total yards in each of its last three games.
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Fresno State at Hawaii:Odds, betting lines and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 7 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Fresno State 34, Hawaii 31
Moneyline (ML)
This one calls for a 60-40 split in wagering the side, with the moneyline getting 40% of the bet. FRESNO STATE’S +105 has some value: not as much as getting the points, but the price points on both sides of the dollar make for a mix being advisable.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on Fresno State returns a profit of $10.50.
Against the Spread (ATS)
I’m coupling the above with FRESNO STATE +2.5 ( -115). The Rainbow Warriors, by nature, are road warriors. And their unusual travel brings in a “human-alytics” situation like this: since 2015, when playing at home after having three road games the previous five weeks, UH is 0-9 ATS.
The Bulldogs are: 16-5-1 over their last 22 games vs. teams over .500 … 9-1 ATS over their last 10 as an underdog. … The Warriors are: 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 450 yards in their previous game … 17-35-1 ATS over their last 53 games at Aloha Stadium (HC Nick Rolovich is 4-10 ATS as a home favorite).
Over/Under (O/U)
The over is a combined 10-5 over this year’s FSU and UH games. And now there is some value here on the UNDER 68.5 (+105) – regression, slight analytics lean toward FSU defense, Bulldogs’ ability to win or play a close game at slower pace.
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