GLENDALE, Ariz. — Opportunity appeared. Bryce Harper was unsigned. Maybe his agent, Scott Boras, could not get a suitor to go above Giancarlo Stanton’s record $325 million pact, perhaps not even beyond the $300 million free-agent record of Manny Machado.
If true, the Dodgers figured, Harper might need a path to save face, a shorter-term option that Los Angeles had signaled previously it would willingly discuss. So the sides met in Las Vegas and the Dodgers proposed concepts for three, four and five years with various opt-outs, all with an annual average of at least a record $35 million.
It was a “why not try” late-February attempt that proved futile when the Phillies eventually guaranteed $330 million over 13 years to land Harper.
But it showed if the right opportunity arose, even at this late date, the Dodgers would be willing to act and exceed the $206 million luxury-tax threshold (they currently project at about $198 million), despite reports to the contrary.
Opportunity remains. Craig Kimbrel might be in that Harper scenario. Forget about the six-year, $108 million opening salvoes or probably the chance to top the five-year reliever records of Aroldis Chapman ($86 million) and Kenley Jansen ($80 million), and perhaps it will be hard to match the $52 million over three years Colorado gave Wade Davis last offseason.
I hear the Braves’ reported interest is overstated. The Nationals are intrigued, but want to stay under the threshold. No way can they pay Kimbrel well and stay under unless they trade a significant contract. Perhaps the Twins will push to further bolster their AL Central threat to the Indians.
But if the long-term market isn’t there for Kimbrel, how about the Dodgers offering one year at $25 million?
The impediments? As opposed to the popular Harper, the Dodgers cannot monetize Kimbrel. Also, Kimbrel remains unsigned after a 2018 in which his strikeout rate fell while his homer, flyball and walk rates rose, stoking concerns of decline.
Kimbrel has favored being a traditional closer, and for the Dodgers he would have to set up Jansen. Kimbrel has 333 saves, the most by a lot through age 30. Giving up a year of saves would imperil his chances to challenge Mariano Rivera’s record 652 (amazingly, Rivera had just 165 through age 30).
David Meter, Kimbrel’s agent, did not return a text seeking insight into where his client’s market stands or this concept. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman refused comment on Kimbrel.
“I can’t go too much into that,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “I had Craig as a player in San Diego [in 2015, when Roberts was bench coach]. What he brings to any club is plus-plus on the field and in the clubhouse. Where we are at right now, we are set, but Craig Kimbrel makes any team considerably better.”
Indeed, the Dodgers are strong favorites to win the NL West an eighth straight year. But if searching for why the Rockies could upend that, begin at the end. Jansen underwent corrective heart surgery in November. He is considerably lighter. His velocity was down in his first spring outing and he is coming off his worst season.
If all worked well, the Dodgers could have Kimbrel and Jansen collecting the final six outs. But if Jansen goes down, the Dodgers would ask a thinner bullpen with no experienced closer to soldier on. They have the financial might to better protect themselves and by doing this with money, they keep their prospects for July, when their in-season needs arise. The $25 million is a 2019 overpayment, but their financial might permits the Dodgers to avoid long-term risk (even a declining Kimbrel remains better than most relievers, such was his high peak).
What is in it for Kimbrel? Teams no longer look at save totals when deciding which relievers to pay, so setting up does not hurt Kimbrel’s value if he excels, plus Jansen’s health potentially provides an avenue to close. Kimbrel would be pitching for a contender in a big NL park (helping his extreme flyball tendencies) plus there are 18 games in the big parks in San Diego and San Francisco.
Also, it is $25 million — $5 million more than Jansen is due in 2021, the most on the books for a reliever in a season.
Late in the offseason game there remains a save opportunity — face for Jansen, roster fragility for the Dodgers. Can they convert?
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