Super Bowl LIV features two very evenly matched teams with the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs squaring off Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. The oddsmakers at BetMGM predict it to be a close battle with the Chiefs entering as 1.5-point favorites.
The 49ers boast a dominant ground game and defense, while the Chiefs have 2018 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes and an offense that can light up a scoreboard in a hurry. One player who doesn’t get talked about much for Kansas City is RB Damien Williams.
That’s probably because he only started six games and rushed for 498 yards this season, not playing a significant role until the second half of the year. Entering Super Bowl LIV, he’s the Chiefs’ starter at running back.
Just how productive will he be against the 49ers defense, though? And should you bet on his rushing yards total for the game?
Damien Williams Super Bowl LIV rushing yards: 100.5
Jan 19, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Damien Williams (26) scores a touchdown against Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) during the third quarter in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
(Photo Credit: Jeff Curry – USA TODAY Sports)
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. ET.
On the surface, it seems obvious to take the Under on that total. Williams has rushed for at least 100 yards only three times in his career and twice this season. In the playoffs, he has gained 92 yards on 29 carries.
When you look at the betting line, it’s not such an easy bet. The Over is +600, while the Under is -1000. In other words, a $10 bet on the Over will pay out $60, and a $10 wager on the Under will net you a whopping $1.
Risking $10 to win a buck doesn’t seem like smart business, especially with Williams’ speed. He had a 91-yard run this season, which was the longest in the NFL. he’s a big play waiting to happen, and although the 49ers allowed only two running backs to gain at least 100 yards against them this season, Williams is a firecracker.
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It’ll be difficult for him to get enough opportunities to top the 100-yard mark. He has never received 20 carries in a single game in his career and only twice has he carried it more than 13 times. The Chiefs are clearly going to lean on their MVP quarterback, thus limiting the chances for Williams.
If the Chiefs want to attempt to negate the 49ers’ pass rush, utilizing draws and wide zone runs could help.
It’s not worth betting $10 to win $1. It’s certainly not worth laying down $100 to win $10 on the Under. You’re better off putting a wager on the OVER 100.5 (+600) and hoping Williams can find a crease and create a big play on the ground. He’s not going to get 20 carries, and in the two games in which he topped 100 rushing yards this season, he had a carry of 91 yards and 84 yards.
Also see:
- Super Bowl LIV Betting Guide
- Super Bowl LIV: 7 player prop bets to cash in on
- 2020 Super Bowl odds and betting trends
- 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl odds: Chiefs slight favorites over 49ers
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