The WHO years ago cautioned a deadly “Disease X” could spark an international contagion. The new coronavirus, with its ability to suddenly morph from mild to deadly, is emerging as a contender.
From recent reports about the stealthy ways the coronavirus, also known as Covid-19, spreads and maims, a picture is emerging of an enigmatic pathogen whose effects are mainly mild, but which can unpredictably turn deadly in the second week.
Whether it will be contained or not, this outbreak is rapidly becoming the first true pandemic challenge that fits the disease X category
Marion Koopmans, head of viroscience at Erasmus University Medical Center
In less than three months, coronavirus has infected almost 78,000 people, mostly in China and killed more than 2,300.
Marion Koopmans, head of viroscience at Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam, and a member of the WHO’s emergency committee, recently wrote: “Whether it will be contained or not, this outbreak is rapidly becoming the first true pandemic challenge that fits the disease X category.”
Coronavirus has now spread to more than two dozen countries and territories.
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Worryingly, some of those infected with the virus had no known link to China, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.
Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said yesterday: “We are not seeing community spread here in the United States yet, but it’s very possible -even likely – that it may eventually happen.”.
Unlike SARS, its viral cousin, coronavirus replicates at high concentrations in the nose and throat in a similar way to the common cold and appears capable of spreading from those who show no, or mild, symptoms.
This makes it impossible to control using the fever-checking measures which helped stop the spread of SARS 17 years ago.
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A cluster of cases within a family living in the Chinese city of Anyang is believed to have begun when a 20-year-old woman carried the virus from Wuhan, the outbreak’s epicentre, on January 10 and spread it while experiencing no illness, researchers reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
Five relatives subsequently developed fever and respiratory symptoms.
Although coronavirus is less deadly than SARS, which had a case fatality rate of 9.5 percent, the disease is likely more contagious.
Both viruses attack the respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts, via which they can potentially spread.
While more than 80 percent of patients are reported to have a mild version of the disease and will recover, about one in seven develops pneumonia, difficulty breathing and other severe symptoms.
Approximately five percent of patients have critical illness, including respiratory failure, septic shock and multi-organ failure.
Doctors wrote in a paper for the American Medical Association: “Unlike SARS, Covid-19 infection has a broader spectrum of severity ranging from asymptomatic to mildly symptomatic to severe illness that requires mechanical ventilation.
“Clinical progression of the illness appears similar to SARS: patients developed pneumonia around the end of the first week to the beginning of the second week of illness.”
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