IT'S Chepstow's big one on Friday and defending champ Elegant Escape is in town to defend his Welsh National title.
There's seven cards on the billing so read on for some race-by-race analysis.
Race 1 – 12.30 Coral "Fail To Finish" Free Bets Maiden Hurdle
Colin Tizzard has a proper team descending on Wales for the card and he should get off to a flyer with HARRY SENIOR who has by far and away the best form in the book.
He's already been beat in three similar heats, but has run into some smart types and while this is no walk in the park, it certainly represents the best opportunity to date and he has improved for his outings.
I can't imagine the step up in trip being an issue and they certainly have this one to beat.
The dangers come in the shape of Gosheven and Cap Du Mathan – both with solid form in the book and the scope to come forwards plenty.
The first of those was third in Grade 2 company when last seen but has not been seen for 439 days. Philip Hobbs has a decent team of novices though so the betting can guide as to how this chap has been going at home.
Paul Nicholls' Cap Du Mathan was an encouraging third to a decent Tizzard horse last time but will need to improve on that you would think. But in these hands that cannot be ruled out and he looks a stayer in the making.
Global Fame can't be ignored for the Fergal O'Brien team. He makes his hurdles debut here after winning a Southwell bumper last time out. This is a deeper heat but the team are going well and have unleashed a few nice types at this course. Watch the market.
SELECTION: Harry Senior
DANGER: Gosheven
Race 2 – 1.05 "The Smart Money's On Coral" Handicap Chase
The first chase of the day can go to none other than Venetia Williams; surprise, surprise.
ECEPARTI has bolted up the last twice since switching to fences, and while the handicapper has done his best to put a stop to that run, an 11lbs rise could still be on the fair side.
Not many come into this in form and are plenty more exposed than Eceparti, even if the handicapper is beginning to relent with the likes of Springtown Lake.
Philip Hobbs' horse has some smart form in the book but has shown nothing of late. However, conditions will suit and if he is going to have a resurgence this small field and a near career low mark may do the trick.
Whatswrongwithyou is another that has lost their way of late and the handicapper is yet to react. He is hard to trust in current form.
The locally-trained Lord Bryan is another with a chance but again you would like to have seen a more positive run in recent efforts. He has won at Chepstow before though.
Stick with the favourite.
SELECTION: Eceparti
DANGER: Springtown Lake
Race 3 – 1.35 Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
Chepstow's only Grade 1 of the season and it tends to represent a great chance for a top level notch on the CV.
It looks a match between Dan Skelton's Allmankind and Joseph O'Brien's CEBERUS.
Ceberus took a Grade 3 last time out and is much more professional in the way he races than the tearaway that is Allmankind.
That's not to say the latter is not talented and if he can pull along this field on a string and then still kick away the way he did at Cheltenham then we can begin to take this horse at face value.
He should stay no problem, the run up the Cheltenham hill lends itself to that view, but I have to pluck for the Irish raider Ceberus who has recently been purchased by powerhouse JP McManus after beating one of his own last time out.
He made all that day, but I doubt he'll be taking on the Skelton horse. I expect him to pick him up along the long Chepstow straight.
Tavus already looks a bargain buy for Jedd O'Keeffe, but this a huge step-up on his Newcastle effort and a further bit of experience in this company won't be bad for him in the long run.
It's hard to make a case for much else. Money for Elysian Flame would be interesting for Mick Easterby with Paddy Brennan booked.
SELECTION: Ceberus
DANGER: Allmankind
Race 4 – 2.10 "The Smart Money's On Coral" Handicap Hurdle
The first proper stamina test of the day comes over hurdles here and while a big weight is far from ideal the 7lbs claim of Bryan Carver looks real value on SYKES.
Staying is his game and this race looks perfect for him. He has form on heavy and form on good and always tends to run his race. His current double figure odds look insulting.
Ask Dillon has few miles in the bank and although a mark of 137 is far from a gift, there must be a chance he kicks on this season and builds on his Exeter rout last spring.
As mentioned, Fergal O'Brien tends to do well at this track and market support will be of interest.
Acey Milan will rightly head the betting, but has been upped 4lbs for an agonising second at Haydock and while this is an easier race I'm not sure this extreme test is what he wants.
The handicapper has taken no chances with Perfect Man and an 8lbs rise looks harsh on what he achieved here last time out.
EACH-WAY SELECTION: Sykes
DANGER: Ask Dillon
Race 5 – 2.50 Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
Seventeen are set to line up for the main event but rather un-originally I cannot see past the top weight and favourite ELEGANT ESCAPE. In fact, I'm all over him.
He's been running well all season in bigger and better races and this true stamina test is clearly what he needs.
He won this last year off top weight and while he's of course higher this time around, I'm fairly confident he's a better horse this year too.
The big danger has to be Truckers' Lodge who has targeted this race for what seems like an age.
A mark of 139 could really be on the easy side when we look back of this and claimer Lorcan Williams has been shredding the pounds to make sure he's on this shot.
The Two Amigos will be a popular each-way shout and won't lack for any staying power. Potters Corner is another proper stayer and has been aimed at this race too.
Now McGinty is another with a massive shout. He has a bit of class about him and jumps for fun. This will be perfect for him.
SELECTION: Elegant Escape
EACH-WAY SHOUT: The Two Amigos
Race 6 – 3.25 Coral "Fail To Finish" Free Bets Novices' Limited Handicap Chase
Only six are set to go to post here and it looks fairly wide-open.
Dominateur will head the market after his convincing course and distance win last time. He's clearly a chaser on the up and conditions won't be an issue whatsoever.
But a 10lbs rise makes things tricky in a deeper race and slight preference is for OCEAN COVE who should be a better price.
He makes his chase debut but the small field and open feel to the race should help cater to any early, nervy mistakes.
He has always shaped like chasing would be his game and there should be more to come now.
In truth it doesn't appeal as much as a betting heat as some of the others and it may be wise to keep your money in your pocket unless something takes your eye.
Clondaw Anchor is another younger horse on the way up and any market support is interesting as ever for the Skelton team.
TENTATIVE NOD: Ocean Cove
Race 7 – 3.55 Coral "Fail To Finish" Free Bets Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race
A wide-open bumper to close the card and there's not much in the way of form to go on.
The Paul Nicholls-trained Jeremy Pass will be popular in the John Dance colours after his third last time out.
But it may be worth taking a swing on MALINELLO who should be ready to go here for the now clicking into gear Ben Pauling team.
His runners have been going off juicy prices after a slow start to the season.
And after a couple of winners it may be worth taking a punt on his runner in this wide-open heat.
TENTATIVE NOD: Malinello
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