Rob Manfred presides over either the sickest healthy patient or the healthiest sick patient.
Major league revenue has never been higher (more than $10 billion now). New substantial media deals with Fox and DAZN, a subscription-based streaming-video service, were inked this offseason, and ESPN is in the wings. And the promises of even greater wealth coming with legal gambling hovers (MGM became MLB’s official gaming partner this winter).
MLB’s wallet floweth over.
Yet the sense of a league someplace between flailing and failing lingers. The games are generally perceived as moving too slowly — a particular worry when trying to lure generations with ever-decreasing attention spans. The belief too many teams are not even trying to win perpetuates. The tensions between the union and the commissioner’s office are the worst since the lost World Series of 1994. Attendance last year sank below 70 million — with 17 teams showing declines.
More than anyone, it is Manfred’s responsibility to heal the patient, to increase success beyond the financial bottom line. It is why the commissioner tops the list of Hardball’s annual 50 Most Interesting People in Baseball (last year’s rank in parentheses):
1. Rob Manfred, MLB commissioner (3)
It is within Manfred’s power to institute a pitch clock and a further limiting of mound visits for the 2019 season. To date, he has resisted, seeking to find common ground with the union rather than implement against player wishes. The Players Association countered MLB’s recommendation in the past two weeks, but also included in its proposal a broader scope of changes that the union hopes will discourage tanking and encourage feistier bidding for free agents.
The current CBA does not expire until 2021, so Manfred must decide how much he wants to engage in rule alterations beyond his pace-of-play obsessions. On one hand, MLB has sagely negotiated itself into a leverage position, and why ever give up any part of the upper-hand? Conversely, lowering the off-field tensions and improving the product with the players as partners has potentially even more benefits.
Which road does Manfred take?
2. Tony Clark, MLBPA executive director (6)
There has been a loudening of rhetoric about a strike in three years if, in particular, MLB does not address the slow free-agent market and service time manipulation, among other issues. But let’s just say — as opposed to work stoppages of the past — it might not be as easy to walk 1,200 members out when (regardless of the issues) the average salary is more than $4 million and the conditions generally favorable. Plus, Clark does not exactly have a strong bond with many of the top agents who represent the bulk of the players. Thus, he needs to navigate the difficult road in which he gets concessions from MLB over the next three years without much leverage.
3. Bryce Harper, free agent (4)
Assuming he does not go into plumbing supplies, Harper will play major league baseball in 2019. But with spring training about to open, the question was where. In some ways, the long wait for his signing combined with the mystery of which team and for how much makes how he plays in 2019 even more compelling. Will he begin to make a lot of organizations regret shunning him in the market — or not?
4. Manny Machado, free agent (9)
See Harper, Bryce … But add also that eyes will be on Machado to see if he can repair a reputation harmed in October by dubious hustle/questions of dirty play and his silly commentary about it. Will a long-term contract make hustle even more not Machado’s cup of tea?
5. Derek Jeter, Marlins CEO (5)
Mariano Rivera already became the first player elected unanimously into the Hall. Will Jeter become the second next offseason? Between now and then, the Marlins have 162 games to play, and let’s just say Jeter’s first year as Miami’s chief executive officer did not go the same Rookie of the Year way as when he was a Yankees player. Many executives left or were fired, disillusioned with how they were treated by Marlin brass. The trades of starry veterans for prospects, particularly dealing Christian Yelich, did not go well. The team lost 98 games and attendance cratered. And there are no signs of things getting much better in 2019, not with the other four NL East teams looking strong and Miami now having traded its best remaining player, J.T. Realmuto, for a package that did not exactly overwhelm the industry. Jeter’s once pristine reputation is being dented — and worse is possible.
6. Alex Cora, Red Sox manager (not ranked)
Has any first-year manager ever been perceived as pressing more right buttons — on and off the field — than Cora? His Red Sox won 108 games and a championship, and Cora was not a lucky bystander who benefitted from proximity to talent, he helped elevate the talent. What is the encore?
7. Brodie Van Wagenen, Mets GM (NR)
He did not exactly tip-toe into his unique transformation from powerhouse agent to Mets GM. He made a splashy, risky trade for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano, and took on enough free agents to get the Wilpons to raise payroll. He has boasted the Mets are the team to beat in the NL East. Is he a visionary or delusional?
8. Joe Maddon, Cubs manager (50)
Both Maddon and the Cubs’ Theo Epstein-led front office downplayed talk of unease that surfaced last year even before the Cubs blew a five-game NL Central lead in September and lost the wild-card game. But Maddon did not get an extension after last season, so he enters 2019 as a lame duck despite leading the Cubs to four straight playoffs and a title. At 65, he is the majors’ oldest manager and among the highest paid. He probably needs huge success this year to continue on.
9. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays prospect (shared 18 with his father)
He and another junior of a former major leaguer, Fernando Tatis, are generally viewed as the majors’ best prospects. Guerrero, though, almost certainly would be in the majors when the season begins — despite not turning 20 until March 16 — if the Blue Jays were not concerned about slowing his arbitration and free-agent clocks. He hit .381 with a 1.073 OPS across four levels last year. When does Toronto call him to the majors and how much further anger does this engender in fans and players that a deserving player is not promoted for financial reasons?
10. Shohei Ohtani, Angels DH (1)
He topped this list last year because he combined mystery (coming from Japan) with the potential for majesty (the first player since Babe Ruth to successfully pitch and hit in the same year). Ohtani’s first season was abbreviated by arm issues, but he still did remarkably well in both disciplines to win the AL Rookie of the Year. The need for Tommy John surgery means no pitching this year. But what will Ohtani do as just a DH when he doesn’t have to work on his pitching? He had a 152 OPS-plus last year, seventh in the majors among those with 350 plate appearances.
11. Ronald Acuna Jr./Juan Soto, Braves OF/National OF (NR/NR)
They were two of the best 20-or-under players in the history of the game in 2018. What will their sophomore seasons look like?
12. Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees OF/DH (2)
Stanton led the Yankees in homers (38), RBIs (100) and games played (158), and yet it all felt underwhelming as the 2017 NL MVP struck out 211 times and went through long periods of ineffectiveness. Will Year 2 in The Bronx bring better consistency?
13. Nolan Arenado/Paul Goldschmidt, Rockies 3B/Cardinals 1B (36/NR)
At this time last year there was a strong belief Harper and Machado would head out into free agency to head the class. The same is not true for Arenado and Goldschmidt. There was perceived momentum toward Colorado and Arenado coming to a long-term contract. And the Cardinals traded for Goldschmidt envisioning they could entice him into a multi-year partnership.
14. Madison Bumgarner, Giants SP (26)
Dozens of free agents remain, so is it too soon to wonder about the best player traded before the July 31 deadline? The clubhouse leader is Bumgarner. Historically, the Giants retained their legacy players. But a new, more analytically leaning GM (Farhan Zaidi) and a rebuilding project already has had San Francisco listening to offers. A strong first half by the lefty combined with an expected poor one from San Francisco will put Bumgarner into the market.
15. Mike Trout, Angels OF (13)
Through his age-26 season, Trout has the eighth-most homers (240) ever (hat tip to the recently deceased Frank Robinson who was seventh at 241). Trout is third in OPS-plus (175) behind Ty Cobb and Mickey Mantle (minimum 4,000 plate appearances). He’s fifth in slugging percentage (.573) behind Jimmie Foxx, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and Mantle. This is the company Trout is keeping. The sport needs Trout in the playoffs.
16. Gabe Kapler, Phillies manager (15)
He had a polarizing first year as manager that ended in a Phillies collapse. His team has bulked up this offseason for a sustained run. And reports recently surfaced that Kapler, while serving as the Dodgers’ director of player development, might have mishandled multiple sexual assaults committed by minor leaguers in 2015. No manager is on a hotter seat.
17. Yuki Yanagita, Japanese prospect (NR)
No player was more impressive against the group of major leaguers who played in Tokyo in November than the lefty-hitting center fielder, who hit .352 with 36 homers and 21 steals last season for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. There is some buzz he might try to come to the majors after the 2019 season, but he has only completed the first season of a three-year contract, and SoftBank has a history of not wanting to post its players early. Thus, the more likely Japanese stars to watch for a potential jump after this season are righty pitcher Takahiro Norimoto, who has won five strikeout titles playing for Masahiro Tanaka’s old Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles; Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, a left fielder who had 38 homers last year for the Yokohoma DeNA BayStars; and Tetsuto Yamada, a second baseman with 34 homers and 33 steals last season who might be the most likely to leave because his Yakult Swallows have a history of posting players.
18. J.D. Martinez, Red Sox OF/DH (NR)
He can opt out of his five-year Red Sox contract after the 2019 season. The NL might get the DH as early as 2020. That would double the potential number of teams that could have interest.
19. Jacob deGrom, Mets SP (NR)
The NL Cy Young winner had 16 starts of at least seven innings and two or fewer runs (earned or unearned) last year — which was more than five teams. Do the Mets reward him with a long-term contract before the season begins and more runs once it does start?
20. Patrick Corbin, Nationals SP (NR)
Projections that the 2018-19 free-agent market would be the most starry began three years out and slowly faded for reasons from injury, to diminished performance, to signings, to, most tragically, the death of Jose Fernandez. But at any point would anyone have bet that Corbin (six years, $140 million) would spend pretty much this entire offseason as by far the highest-paid free agent? He joins Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in the rotation as the Nationals try to distance themselves from being arguably the most disappointing team of 2018.
21. Kyler Murray, A’s OF prospect (NR)
He was drafted ninth overall by the A’s last June, given a $4.66 million bonus and indicated his future was in baseball. He then won the Heisman Trophy. Now, he is not as definitive about his future, except that he is likely to go to the NFL Combine from Feb. 26-March 4 — which, in theory ,would take him from Oakland’s minor league camp, and if he leaves without permission, could potentially create a violation that could force the repaying of his bonus. What will Murray decide? His case already has moved the Players Association to consider asking MLB that draft-eligible two-sport stars again be allowed to sign major league contracts.
22. Tim Tebow, Mets OF prospect (41)
He has been invited to the Mets’ major league camp as a non-roster player by his former baseball agent, who is now the Mets’ GM. And Van Wagenen has suggested Tebow has a major league chance in 2019. Tebow is 31. He had a .734 OPS at Double-A last year.
23. Theo Epstein, Cubs president (40)
He has decided to stick with Maddon plus shortstop Addison Russell, after a suspension for violating MLB’s domestic abuse decrees. Epstein was hamstrung to maneuver this offseason by nine-figure contracts gone bad given to Jason Heyward and Yu Darvish. Epstein is doubling down on his core of position players who had unsatisfying years, notably Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber.
This all comes at a time when Cubs ownership is reeling due to revelations that the patriarch of the family, Joe Ricketts, sent and received racist emails. The glow of that long waited for championship is dimming.
24. Carlos Correa/Francisco Lindor/Corey Seager, Astros SS/Indians SS/Dodgers SS (32)
The brilliant young shortstops all are returning from injury. Seager missed all but 26 games due to needing Tommy John surgery. He is expected to be a full player in spring. Correa’s back troubles negatively impacted his availability and production last year. Lindor incurred an offseason calf strain making him doubtful for Opening Day. The Dodgers, Astros and Indians are all favorites to win their divisions again, which becomes trickier if they don’t have the best of their starting shortstops.
25. Mookie Betts, Red Sox OF (NR)
The Red Sox right fielder led the league in hitting, slugging, stole 30 bases, won a Gold Glove and was named AL MVP. He is younger than Aaron Judge.
26. Aaron Judge, Yankees OF (7)
In 21 July games before incurring the right wrist chip fracture that would cost him seven weeks, Judge was hitting .329 with five homers and a .964 OPS. It was as if his hitting acumen had refined another level. What is possible if he is healthy in 2019?
27. Justin Verlander, Astros SP (30)
He turns 36 later this month, but he is coming off 290 strikeouts and a second-place Cy Young finish. Both he and Astros teammate Gerrit Cole are free agents after this season. Can a pitcher his age prove so resilient and excellent that he still gets a big contract in free agency?
28. Kenley Jansen/CC Sabathia, Dodgers SP/Yankees SP (NR/NR)
Two of the most accomplished pitchers in the game underwent heart procedures in the offseason. Does that impact 2019 at all?
29. Max Scherzer, Nationals SP (22)
His averages over the past six seasons: 18-7, 2.81 ERA, 270 strikeouts and 219 innings. He has finished Cy Young top-five in all six seasons, including three wins.
30. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 1B (27)
He played just 38 games last year before biceps surgery ended his season. He was last a healthy impact bat in 2016. Yet, he has five years at $162 million left for rebuilding Detroit.
31. Robinson Cano, Mets 2B (NR)
The Mets owe him $100 million over the next five years, which was part of the price to get their hands on Diaz. But Van Wagenen has insisted he also wants Cano (one of his clients from the agenting days) despite the second baseman having incurred an 80-game suspension last year for violating MLB’s PED policy.
32. J.T. Realmuto, Phillies C (NR)
He gets out of a dreary situation and a pitcher’s park in Miami to a hitter’s haven and likely contention in Philadelphia. He is a stealth MVP candidate.
33. Andrew Friedman, Dodgers president (21)
His key lieutenant, Zaidi, left for the rival Giants. The Dodgers have won the NL West six straight times — the past four with Friedman running baseball operations — but have lost the past two World Series and are title-less since 1988. Los Angeles again went for quality depth over the big strike, avoiding (to date) Harper in free agency and Realmuto via trade.
34. Josh Donaldson, Braves 3B (NR)
Shoulder and leg maladies have wrecked his past two seasons, but he is not far removed from huge impact, and Atlanta gambled a one-year, $23 million pact that Donaldson could still be a force.
35. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers SP (11)
Rather than test free agency via his opt out, Kershaw did a three-year, $93 million extension with the Dodgers. After averaging 32 starts and 222 innings from 2010-15, Kershaw the past three seasons is averaging 25 starts and 162 innings. He remains highly effective, just not with the same durability.
36. Yasiel Puig, Reds OF (44)
His 127 OPS-plus since joining the majors in 2013 is the same in that timeframe as Buster Posey and George Springer. But the Dodgers had grown weary of his inconsistency of preparation and concentration and before Puig’s walk year dealt him to a Reds team trying to infuse with veterans and do some winning now. How will Puig be perceived in Cincinnati?
37. Alex Rodriguez, ESPN/Fox analyst (12)
He has become as much a face (and voice) of baseball as anyone in gigs with ESPN and Fox. Can he maintain the goodwill?
38. Brian Cashman/Hal Steinbrenner, Yankees GM/owner (NR/NR)
An offseason after taking on the remains of the largest contract in history (with Stanton), Cashman and Steinbrenner (to date) stayed away from Harper/Machado. Many in the fan base are upset, believing that going under the luxury-tax threshold in 2018 was done primary to chase this kind of star. The Yankees, though, have decided to diversify their talent acquisition without the long-term risk or short-term stardom of Harper/Machado. The payroll projects to the $220 million range. Will the Cashman/Steinbrenner way be rewarded?
39. Christian Yelich, Brewers OF (19)
He led the NL in average, slugging and OPS en route to an MVP that helped the Brewers secure just their second division title since 1982.
40. Byron Buxton, Twins OF (NR)
For now he is a poster child that not all elite prospects make it. He was ranked as the first- or second-best prospect in the game each year from 2014-16 by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB Pipeline. And late in 2017 for the Twins, he seemed to put all together his speed, power, defensive possibilities. But after an atrocious early stint, he wound up back in the minors in 2018. He is still just 25, as is another fallen star prospect, Miguel Sano. The Twins’ ability to revive them is vital to Minnesota’s future.
41. Gary Sanchez, Yankees C (NR)
Will he hit enough to make his defensive issues less pronounced? Will he upgrade on blocking the ball better? Will he make the Yankees regret not going hard after Realmuto?
42. Felix Hernandez, Mariners SP (43)
He is in the final season of his seven-year, $175 million pact, and he may not make the season in the rotation or even on the Mariners’ roster. His ERA has risen each of the past four seasons, to 5.55 last year. A fallen Seattle icon.
43. Javier Baez, Cubs 2B (NR)
While so much of the Cubs’ young positional core faltered last season, Baez finished second in the NL MVP chase. He remains among the most exciting players in the game on both sides of the ball.
44. Chris Sale, Red Sox SP (NR)
He was probably on the way to a Cy Young last year before a shoulder injury led to two DL stints and just 17 innings pitched over the final two months. He is a full go for spring, but there has always been concern about just how much his thin frame can withstand. Sale is entering his walk year.
45. Blake Snell, Rays SP (NR)
Sub 2.00 ERAs in the AL since 1990: Roger Clemens, 1.93 (1990); Pedro Martinez, 1.74 (2000); Snell, 1.89 (2018).
46. Nathan Eovaldi, Red Sox Sp (NR)
He has had more Tommy John surgeries (two) than seasons qualified for the ERA title (one). Yet, his talent and inspiring postseason work moved the Red Sox to give him a four-year, $68 million deal.
47. Zack Wheeler, Mets SP (NR)
Over his final 15 starts, Wheeler was deGrom-esque: 2.06 ERA, .529 OPS against and a strikeout per inning. Was that a coming attraction as the righty enters his walk year or a tease?
48. Matt Harvey, Angels SP (29)
The Angels took Harvey in the third round in 2007, but he did not sign. Now, he is there on a one-year, $11 million contract trying to prove he is more than back-of-the-rotation filler.
49. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 2B (NR)
He has endured four knee surgeries in the past 2 ¹/₂ years. He played just three games last season, when the Red Sox won a title without him. Pedroia still has three years at $40 million due him, but does he still have enough game to be Boston’s regular second baseman.
50. Mickey Callaway, Mets manager (NR)
Callaway was not impressive in Year 1 on the job, but got a reprieve. But he was not hired by Van Wagenen. Thus, the first scapegoat if the plan to contend in 2019 goes awry is likely to be the manager.
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