Josh Allen hasn’t had the greatest of rookie seasons for the Buffalo Bills, with most of his statistics at quarterback ranking near the bottom of the league.
But say this for Allen: He’s willing to air it out.
Allen leads the N.F.L in “intended air yards,” according to the league’s Next Gen stats, which are collected through chips on every player and the ball. The statistic measures how far each pass travels; any yards the receiver gains if he catches it are not counted. When Allen fires the ball, it goes an average of 11.6 yards downfield, the top figure in the league.
Allen ranks ahead of the Tampa Bay tandem of Jameis Winston (10.8) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (10.2). Baker Mayfield of Cleveland and Sam Darnold of the Jets round out the top five at 9.1 each.
These players have something else in common: Their teams, with the possible exception of the Browns, are not very good.
But if the general rule is that this statistic is defined by players who are closing their eyes and heaving it, the No. 6 player on the list is surprising: The breakout star Patrick Mahomes, who has dazzled the league with the Kansas City Chiefs. He throws the ball an average of 9 yards a pass, not far-off those other big heavers.
What Mahomes has in common with some of those players is youth, with four of the top six being in their first or second year in the league. Inexperienced exuberance or the sign of a new wave of deep throwing?
With experienced throwers like Fitzpatrick and Winston, the deep passes tend to turn into deep completions (and more than a few interceptions). They lead the league in average completed air yards, at 8.8 and 8.5 yards, which could be a feather in the cap of their offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, who will probably be looking for a job this off-season but has developed a reputation as an architect of a deep-pass offense.
In Allen’s case, it appears the deep throws are more about exuberance than execution. He has averaged just 6.8 completed air yards per attempt, a full 4.9 yards less than his average target. It’s not only the largest gap in the N.F.L., but it is a full 2 yards more severe than Mayfield, who has the second-worst showing in that regard.
The brash style of big throws can’t be a surprise to those who followed Allen’s college career at Wyoming or saw him at the draft combine. He has the type of arm that scouts love to rave about in such an enthusiastic way that they ignore other concerns, leading to occasional busts like Jeff George and Ryan Leaf.
Unlike Allen, Mayfield was seen more as a complete product at quarterback, and as the season has progressed he has shown vast improvement in making deep passes work to his benefit. Next Gen pointed out on Twitter that since Week 9, when Freddie Kitchens began calling plays for Cleveland, Mayfield leads all quarterbacks with 12 completions of 20 or more yards in the air, at a completion rate of 67 percent. The Browns are 4-2 in those games.
Allen, who has shown a great deal of talent as a runner, is 4-5 as a starter, and though he can’t match Mayfield’s recent efficiency, he at the very least has made himself distinct for showing up at the extreme edge of several statistics. Next Gen has him as the N.F.L. leader in “air yards to the sticks,” a measure of how far beyond the first-down marker he throws, on average, with his passes exceeding that mark by 1.9 yards. Only Winston and Fitzpatrick are also over 1, and many passers have a negative average.
Allen also leads in time to throw, taking an average of 3.32 seconds between snap and release; no other player is above 3.
This weird combination of skills: taking time to pass, and then throwing long — maybe longer than necessary — is not resulting in any sort of efficiency. Among the league’s regular starters, Allen has the lowest passer rating and an adjusted yards per attempt figure better than only Arizona’s Josh Rosen, his fellow rookie.
Which quarterbacks are most reluctant to go deep? The shortest throwers in the game are Derek Carr of Oakland, Cody Kessler of Jacksonville and C. J. Beathard of San Francisco, all at 6.8 yards per attempt. Oddly enough, all of them are on poor teams as well.
In truth, there is no perfect style of throwing, with the league’s top quarterbacks running the gamut in terms of how aggressive they play. As mentioned, Mahomes regularly goes deep, as does Russell Wilson. Matt Ryan (8.4), Philip Rivers (8.1) and Ben Roethlisberger (7.7) are about average, and Drew Brees is comparatively cautious at 7.1.
But before you dismiss Allen and his grab bag of statistical quirks, it is worth noting that the rookie had one of his best games of the season on Sunday, beating the Detroit Lions, 14-13, and throwing 26 passes without an interception. And he has not stopped airing it out: He threw at least 15 yards in the air or more 12 times, The Athletic reported.
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