Right now, we really don’t know much more than we did a week ago. The difference is that we think we do.
The Big Ten East is now overrated. Notre Dame is now a playoff contender. Kyler Murray is now Baker Mayfield.
And yes, the Pac-12 still has problems.
After the conference was left out of the playoff for the second time in four years — and went 1-8 in bowl games — the pessimism surrounding the Pac-12 only amplified with a disappointing start to the season.
The conference’s best hope for its first national championship in 14 years (Washington) likely needs to run the table after losing a tough game to Auburn. The return of a revered college coach (Chip Kelly) demonstrated a system doesn’t mean much without players. The league’s two brightest stars (Bryce Love, Khalil Tate) have already been lapped in the Heisman race.
But Stanford and USC still have a chance to change the narrative.
While Love was limited to 29 yards on 18 carries in the season opener, the Cardinal received improved quarterback play from K.J. Costello in a 31-10 win over San Diego State. It’s a strategy that we’ll see over and over this season, with opponents loading the box against the Heisman runner-up, forcing Stanford to win through the air. Against the Trojans — who won both meetings against Stanford last year, including the conference championship — winning one-on-one battles on the outside won’t be so easy.
Last year in Week 2, true freshman quarterback Jake Fromm traveled to Notre Dame and pulled out a win. True freshman JT Daniels is capable of doing the same. Take the Trojans (+5).
SMU (+22½) over Tcu: Strictly a contrarian play. There is no other way to justify taking SMU, which just lost by 23 to North Texas. But the high percentage of bettors siding with TCU means far more than the numbers recently on the scoreboard.
Western Michigan (+27¹/₂) over MICHIGAN: There are so many games to choose from. Why torture yourself and rely on the Wolverines’ offense? In its past eight games favored by 20 points or more, Jim Harbaugh’s crew has gone 1-7 against the spread.
New Mexico (+35) over WISCONSIN: The Badgers will score a lot of points, but with a lot of long, time-consuming drives. Though Wisconsin is talented enough to win the Big Ten, it won’t be easy with a quarterback (Alex Hornibrook) I wouldn’t trust to toss me my keys.
Duke (+2¹/₂) over NORTHWESTERN: A game between two evenly matched teams — although, Duke won 41-17 last season — has resulted in one of the most lopsidedly bet games of the week. Brian Fantana calculated it for me, and 80 percent of people are wrong almost every time.
KANSAS STATE (+9½) over Mississippi State: This overreaction to Week 1 is a gift. The Wildcats, an historically strong home dog, will be ready for the game they were looking ahead to last week. Bill Snyder has his name on the stadium for a reason.
Ucla (+30¹/₂) over OKLAHOMA: Kelly likely won’t be much more successful in his game-planning than Lane Kiffin, but the Bruins’ superior athletes will withstand the Sooners assault better than Florida Atlantic.
OHIO STATE (-36) over Rutgers: Without Urban Meyer, the Buckeyes put up 77 points against Oregon State. Again, his presence on the sideline won’t be necessary against a team Ohio State has beaten by a combined score of 219-24 over the past four years.
Georgia (-10) over SOUTH CAROLINA: The media loves a good guarantee. Only an opposing coach loves it even more. South Carolina tight end Tori Gurley’s victory guarantee provided a more talented, and better coached, team with bulletin board (tablet?) material, and turned the Bulldogs’ first conference game into a statement game.
Arkansas State (+37½) over ALABAMA: Strangely, this has become one of college football’s safest bets. The Tide begin every season by annihilating a power five opponent. Then, they take it easy on the less fortunate. Last year, Alabama again demonstrated their philosophical differences with Cobra Kai, and showed mercy on Fresno State, 41-10, falling well short of the 44-point spread.
Colorado (+4) over NEBRASKA: A lot has changed since Scott Frost was last in Lincoln, and the new coach hasn’t been back long enough to revive the glory days. Quarterback Adrian Martinez may lead the way one day, but it won’t be in the true freshman’s first game.
Ball State (+34) over NOTRE DAME: I’m feeling a lot better about picking the Irish to make the playoff in The Post’s college football preview. I don’t feel as great about picking a team that won’t be able to keep it close, but the public’s rekindled love with Notre Dame helps.
TEXAS A&M (+12¹/₂) over Clemson: Jimbo Fisher has his first chance to validate his massive contract. The former Florida State coach has split his eight head-to-head meetings with Dabo Swinney, and knows exactly what to expect from an opponent he faces every season. The Aggies may not be able to stop the Tigers, but the 100,000-plus fans should help slow them.
Penn State (-8½) over PITTSBURGH: If the Nittany Lions looked uninspired against Appalachian State, that won’t be a problem in a road game against a rival — especially since several players on Penn State were upset by the Panthers two years ago at Heinz Field.
Michigan State (-6) over ARIZONA STATE: The atmosphere doesn’t matter to a team which makes routine trips to the Big House, the Horseshoe and Happy Valley. Plus, Mark Dantonio (-24½) over Herm Edwards.
Best bets: Kansas State, Arkansas State, Penn State
This season (Best bets): 10-10 (2-1)
2014-17 record: 518-471-10
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