Tigers 22 Sea Eagles 20
Ivan Cleary has been so busy crunching numbers to work out the mathematical miracle his side needs over the next fortnight; the only ones working the abacus more this week have been Liberal Party pollsters.
Unlike Malcolm Turnbull, Cleary's dream is alive. He'll wake up on Friday morning with a finals pulse, the country's leader on his final day.
Don’t count us out just yet: The Tigers celebrate a try on Thursday night.
Cleary can work the phones to get the support of Trent Robinson, whose Roosters need to beat the Broncos to keep the Tigers' faint hopes afloat. Or he can also count on Cameron Ciraldo, whose Panthers can do him a big favour by beating the Warriors.
Then there's next week. The Tigers will need to beat the Rabbitohs and hope either the Broncos or Warriors lose again. And even after all that, the numbers might still not stack up. There's a little matter of for-and-against to worry about.
But for now, Ivan lives another day. Manly's Daly Cherry-Evans missed an after-the-siren penalty goal from 45 metres out near the sideline to send the game to golden point, the final act of a dramatic day.
This smelt very much like Turnbull winning Tuesday's first leadership spill, which really just prolonged the inevitable. Yet Tigers fans can hope.
Cleary's hair might be a little greyer like Turnbull's, having sat on the sidelines as his team threatened to burn around him in a game they had to win to stay alive. They did, toppling the Sea Eagles 22-20 thanks to a frenetic three-try five-minute second-half burst at Campbelltown on Thursday night.
"We’ve shown we can beat the best teams," Cleary said of a potential high-stakes clash against South Sydney next week. "We have to play a fair bit better, though. For now we’ll sit back and see what happens.
"It’s great we’re still alive at this point. There’s a certain No.7 [Penrith halfback and son Nathan] who is over there in Auckland who knows what he’s got to do. You’ve just got to cross your fingers."
It wasn't as ugly as Parliament House, but at times it was up there.
A season which has featured wins over every team in the top four – even beating premiers Melbourne twice – could just have one last sting in the tale for the Tigers.
Like Turnbull, Manly coach Trent Barrett’s cards have been marked. His exit is much of his own volition though, set to walk out on the Sea Eagles with two years left to run on his deal. He’s leaving behind a team which continues to baffle, as good as most when they're on and frighteningly bad for short periods too.
"I'd like to say something sooner rather than later," Barrett said of his tight-lipped stance for weeks. "I'll be a better coach for some of the things I've been through. It will make a me a better coach down the track, I've got no doubt about that. I think everyone knows what I think of the players and I love the blokes I’ve got there.
"They don’t give up. They’ve put themselves in position to win so many games this year – I can probably count eight – and we just haven’t.
"You’ve just got to take your chances when they come and keep learning. If they keep doing the right things it will turn around for them."
For all the romance of the Tigers splitting games at their suburban bases of Leichhardt and Campbelltown, the latter is the last place they would want to be playing when they needed to win to save their season. And win big.
They hadn’t won in more than two years in south-west Sydney – losing seven straight games in the process – and seemingly were on course to make it eight after an insipid opening stanza.
Robbie Farah split Manly within two minutes, but they were a shadow of their best after that.
Daly Cherry-Evans jinked over for the opening points after four minutes and his after-the-siren first half penalty goal cancelled out Kevin Naiqama's reply to give the visitors a two-point lead at the break.
Yet Manly's second half misery from a week earlier was back again. They surrendered three tries in the space of five minutes, the pick of them the second when Alex Twal burst downfield and found Moses Mbye in support. It had Cleary out of his seat, smiling. Just for a few seconds.
Trent Hodkinson scooted over to haul the Sea Eagles to within eight points inside the last quarter, Cherry-Evans bagged a second after the silkiest of touches from Tom Trbojevic. The Tigers were on a knife edge. They survived. Just.
The numbers don't quite stack up yet, but there's still a chance.
Wests Tigers 22 (Kevin Naiqama 2, Chris Lawrence, Moses Mbye tries; Esan Marsters 3 goals) defeated Manly 20 (Daly Cherry-Evans 2, Trent Hodkinson tries; Cherry-Evans 3, Hodkinson goals) at Campbelltown Sports Stadium. Referees: Matt Cecchin, Alan Shortall. Crowd: 8163.
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