Brexit breakthrough? Tusk hints at ‘progress’ in negotiations after call with May as Tories and DUP warn PM against trying to ‘hoodwink’ them over Irish border concessions
- Theresa May is believed to be closing in on a Brexit divorce package with the EU
- Cabinet ministers could sign off new a proposal to break Brexit deadlock in days
- Leaked Whitehall memo apparently revealed a plan to sell PMs deal nationally
- Mr May would tour the country and seek endorsements from world leaders
Theresa May (pictured at a First World War commemoration yesterday) has been struggling to thrash out a deal with the EU
Donald Tusk dropped a major hint of a Brexit breakthrough today after a call with Theresa May.
The EU council chief – who has the power to trigger a summit that could sign off a divorce deal – said he had spoken to the PM to ‘take stock’
The development came as Brexiteers heaped pressure on Mrs May as the two sides appear to be closing in on an agreement. Tory Eurosceptics warned that they would not be ‘hoodwinked’ into backing a settlement, while the DUP demanded the government’s full legal advice is published.
Cabinet ministers are expecting to hold a snap meeting within days to approve a package after frantic efforts to resolve the standoff over the Irish border.
In more evidence of growing optimism, a leaked memo has revealed what appears to be the government’s plan to sell the deal to voters by touring the country and seeking endorsements from world leaders and business chiefs.
No10 sources tried to play down the prospect of an imminent breakthrough, suggesting the call with Mr Tusk was just to keep him updated.
At a tense meeting of the Cabinet yesterday, Mrs May briefed ministers on compromise plans for the Irish border ‘backstop’ – the final stumbling block in negotiations with Brussels.
At least seven Cabinet ministers warned the PM that the latest proposals, which concede that the UK will not be able to withdraw unilaterally from the arrangements to avoid a hard border between Norther Ireland and the Republic – may be a concession too far.
Those raising concerns about the country being trapped indefinitely in a customs union included Sajid Javid, Michael Gove, Gavin Williamson, Penny Mordaunt, Chris Grayling, Liz Truss and Jeremy Hunt.
But a crucial intervention was made by Attorney General Geoffrey Cox. The eminent QC and strident Brexiteer is said to have told the gathering that a ‘review’ clause could be enough to give the UK an escape route.
Mrs May told her ministers that a deal has to be struck this month if it is going to be implemented in time for the UK’s departure from the EU in March.
They were warned Parliament is scheduled to sit for just 74 days before the UK leaves the EU, with a mass of legislation still to pass.
Donald Tusk fuelled speculation about a breakthrough today after a call with Mrs May
Secretary of State for the Environment Michael Gove (left) as well as Home Secretary Sajid Javid (right) voiced fears at Cabinet that the concessions may go too far
A leaked memo revealed what appears to be the government’s plan to sell the deal to voters by touring the country and seeking endorsements from world leaders and business chiefs
The PM insisted this did not mean she was ready to strike a deal ‘at any cost’, and said contingency plans for a ‘no deal’ Brexit were being stepped up.
Mr Tusk tweeted today: ‘Phone call with PM @theresa_may this morning to take stock of progress in #brexit talks and discuss way ahead.’
The Irish border has been the most vexed issue in the negotiations with the EU.
The outline divorce package agreed last December included a commitment to a ‘backstop’ to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
Irish border backstop mechanism is the final hurdle in divorce talks
The Brexit divorce negotiations have boiled down to the issue of the Irish border.
Brussels had initially demanded that Northern Ireland stays within its jurisdiction for customs and most single market rules to avoid a hard border.
But Mrs May flatly rejected the idea, saying she would not agree to anything that risked splitting the UK. Instead, the government has mooted a temporary customs union for the whole UK, and accepted the need for extra regulatory checks in the Irish Sea.
Brussels has also given ground, and now appears to be prepared to sign off a UK-wide backstop in the divorce deal.
That leaves the mechanism for ending the backstop as the final hurdle to overcome – but the two sides have different views.
UNILATERAL EXIT
Dominic Raab has been arguing that the UK should be able to scrap the backstop arrangements by giving three to six months’ notice.
That would assuage Eurosceptic fears that the country could end up being trapped in an inferior customs union indefinitely, unless the EU gives permission for it to stop or a wider trade deal is sealed.
ALL-WEATHER BACKSTOP
For its part, the EU has been adamant that the backstop must offer an ‘all-weather’ solution to the Irish border issue and stay in place ‘unless and until’ it is superseded by other arrangements.
The bloc has already effectively killed off calls for a hard end date to the backstop – and No10 is now convinced that a simple unilateral notice period will not unlock the talks.
COMPROMISE PLAN
Mrs May and Irish PM Leo Varadkar have discussed a ‘review mechanism’ for the backstop, which could involve an independent arbitration body assessing whether the terms were being honoured and if the arrangement should be ended.
Potentially this could provide a solution that allows Mrs May to say the backstop would not go on for ever.
But the devil will be in the detail, and ministers are keen to ensure there are ‘robust’ ways for the UK to escape.
It would only come into effect after a Brexit transition period finishes at the end of 2020. Under the plan, customs and regulatory rules would stay aligned in key areas unless a wider trade pact removed the need.
Both sides insisted the provision – to be included in a Withdrawal Treaty – was a fallback and not their favoured outcome.
But tensions quickly arose over what form the backstop would take. Brussels initially demanded that Northern Ireland stays within its jurisdiction for customs and most single market rules to avoid a hard border.
Mrs May flatly rejected that idea, saying she would not agree to anything that risked splitting the UK. Instead, the government has mooted a temporary customs union for the whole UK.
However, that concept will be fiercely resisted by Eurosceptics who say there must be a time limit.
There would also probably need to be more regulatory checks between mainland UK and Northern Ireland to protect the single market. Some already take place, but they could be dramatically stepped up – potentially creating a huge flashpoint with the DUP.
Brussels now appears to be prepared to do a UK-wide backstop in the divorce deal and is drawing up an ‘independent’ mechanism, which could involve arbitration on whether the terms are working and being honoured.
Documents leaked to the BBC last night suggest Mrs May is already behind schedule.
An apparent blueprint for selling a deal suggested she had hoped to strike an agreement this week before going on a tour of the four nations of the UK to promote it.
The leaked Government communications memo suggests ministers will declare the plan a ‘historic moment’ and urge MPs to ‘put your own interests aside, put the country’s interests first and back this deal’.
But Tory Brexiteers warned the public won’t be foooled by any attempt to ‘hoodwink’ them – and even suggested that Mrs May has already agreed a deal without the Cabinet’s approval.
Jacob Rees-Mogg told The Daily Telegraph: ‘There are rumours a deal has been done without keeping the Cabinet properly informed. If there is an attempt to soften up and hoodwink people there will be no trust left.’
Former Brexit minister Steve Baker said: ‘It looks like exactly the kind of back-of-the-envelope post-exit plan to sell a rubbish deal I would have expected.’
Ministers have been told to ‘stand by your diaries’ for a second Cabinet meeting to sign off the proposals, which could come as early as tomorrow.
Some ministers have pencilled in Saturday – as Mrs May is due to be in France with Emmanuel Macron for First World War commemorations on Friday.
A No10 source said: ‘We are not there yet, but it does now look like there is a way through.’
Chief Secretary to the Treasury Liz Truss (left) and Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt (right) were among those to speak out
Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson (left) as well as Minister for Women and Equalities Penny Mordaunt (centre) and Transport Secretary Chris Grayling (right) have spoken out
In detail, how plan could be sold to the British public
Nov 6: Cabinet discusses proposed deal.
Nov 8: Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab announces ‘a moment of decisive progress’. The narrative should be one of ‘measured success, that this is good for everyone, but won’t be all champagne corks popping’.
Nov 19: After ten days of behind-the-scenes talks in Brussels, Theresa May uses a speech to the CBI conference to announce she has ‘delivered on the referendum’. Mr Raab will make a statement to Parliament, 25 business leaders will back the deal and ‘lots of world leaders’, such as Japanese PM Shinzo Abe, will ‘tweet their support’.
Nov 20: Seven days of parliamentary debate on the deal will begin, with the theme of ‘Delivering for the Whole of the UK’. The PM will visit the north of England ‘and/or Scotland’ and 100 business leaders will be targeted to come out in support of the deal.
Nov 21: Chancellor Philip Hammond will open the Commons debate on the theme of ‘economy, jobs, customs’.
Nov 22: Sajid Javid will lead the Commons debate and give media interviews on the theme of ‘taking back control of our borders’.
Nov 23: The Commons will debate the financial aspects of the deal, including the impact on NHS funding. Health Secretary Matt Hancock will make a related hospital visit.
Nov 24: MPs will sit on a Saturday for the first time since the Falklands War to debate the impact on Northern Ireland. The PM will visit the Province. Irish PM Leo Varadkar will be asked to speak out in support.
Nov 25: Liam Fox will lead Commons debate on ‘global Britain’, including the potential for trade deals and the impact on security co-operation with the EU.
Nov 26: MPs will debate ‘taking back control of our laws’. The Prime Minister will do an interview with ‘Dimbleby’ (thought to be the BBC’s David Dimbleby).
Nov 27: Michael Gove will lead a debate on the impact on farming and fishing before MPs vote on the deal in the evening.
Written at the bottom of the memo in block capital letters: ‘HISTORIC MOMENT, PUT YOUR OWN INTERESTS ASIDE, PUT THE COUNTRY’S INTERESTS FIRST AND BACK THIS DEAL’
Labour’s no to a ‘blind’ deal
Labour will not back any Brexit deal that leaves the UK in only a ‘temporary’ customs union, John McDonnell has said.
It is committed to keeping the UK in a permanent customs union and the Shadow Chancellor said the PM’s plan for a temporary one will fuel uncertainty.
Asked if Labour would vote against a customs union option unless it was permanent, Mr McDonnell told the BBC’s Newsnight show: ‘Yeah, I think so, because… we’ll see what she comes back with and we will be straight and honest with people, if it doesn’t protect jobs and the economy we can’t support it.’
Shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer will hold talks with EU officials in Brussels today and warn Labour is opposed to a so-called ‘blind Brexit’.
Tory Brandon Lewis said the views were evidence of Labour leadership’s wrecking tactics, adding: ‘Labour has spent the last two years doing everything it possibly can to frustrate the Brexit process.’
Tusk fears for Polish ‘Polexit’
Polish EU chief Donald Tusk warns there is a ‘deadly serious’ risk his home country could be the next to leave the bloc.
Mr Tusk fears a bitter feud with Brussels over reforms to Poland’s judicial system could push it out – in a so-called ‘Polexit’.
The EU Council chief said he drew parallels with Britain’s decision to leave the EU and clashes between Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party and Brussels.
He said former prime minister David Cameron had not meant to take Britain out of Europe and claimed Poland could also end up leaving by accident. Mr Tusk served as Poland’s prime minister from 2007 to 2014 and has long been a rival of PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
During a press conference in Warsaw, Mr Tusk: ‘The matter is dramatically serious and the risk is deadly serious. I would like those who are doing everything to cause a so-called Polexit to stop.’ He added that ‘even if Kaczynski does not have a plan to lead Poland out of the [EU], the appearance of the term “Polexit” in political discussion is already dangerous’.
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