Tory big guns fear the PM would be out of her depth to handle the chaos of a cliff-edge departure if she returns from the next summit empty handed.
Support for her is crumbling among Leavers and Remainers after her latest humiliating showdown with EU chiefs.
Letters from MPs demanding a confidence vote are piling up as dismay at her handling of the process hits a new low.
Ministers hope to prop her up long enough to complete the job of taking Britain out on March 29.
But as she stumbles from one disaster to another, they have not warned she must get it sorted or get out.
One close backer said: “There is no orchestrated campaign to remove her but there is mounting dissatisfaction in every quarter.
“Theresa’s credibility is sinking fast. MPs are beginning to wonder that if she can’t deliver a deal with the EU, if she is up to the job of taking us out without one.
“The truth is that nobody trusts her team to deliver that. There would be big issues to tackle every single day.
“If you think the current state of affairs is bad, just imagine what it would be like if there’s no deal. Brexit would be at stake – and so would the security of the nation.
“Theresa and her team would drown in a continual crisis of their own making.”
The ultimatum effectively gives the PM until Christmas to get back on track.
It follows a week of turmoil in which Tory MP Johnny Mercer – a Remainer – branded the her government a “s***show”.
One minister said: “You mustn’t underestimate the importance of this outburst. He was speaking for many restless MPs who have had enough.”
Another added: “It’s clear she’s running an amateur operation. The last thing we want is a leadership contest right now but if things get any worse it will be inevitable.”
Allies of former Brexit Secretary David Davis have been quietly sounding out support for him to be installed as a caretaker PM if Mrs May is toppled.
One senior figure has suggested a recall to government for former Tory leader William Hague – even though he is now in the Lords.
But the likelihood is that a dozen MPs would throw their hats in the ring for a three-month contest – and the likelihood of the Brexit process grinding to a halt.
Under party rules, a confidence vote on the Tory leader is triggered if backbench boss Sir Graham Brady receives letters from 48 MPs.
Mrs May’s allies fear that with angst spreading from Brexiteers to Leavers, a challenge could be sparked accidentally.
A Brexiteer MP said: “I’ve no intention of putting in a letter but I know some are holding off to see if she gets a deal. If not, some believe there would be too much at stake to leave her in place to steer Britain through the much stormier waters that would lie ahead.”
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