PETER OBORNE: The Tories’ Invisible Man will be the next PM

PETER OBORNE: Why I think the Tories’ Invisible Man will be the next PM

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They won’t admit it in public, of course, but several Cabinet ministers are flexing themselves to stand as the next Tory leader whenever Theresa May decides to step down.

The PM herself put them on standby after foolishly signalling that her days in No 10 are numbered by making it clear she won’t lead the party into the next General Election.

Home Secretary Sajid Javid openly covets the top job. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt would like to be PM one day but is more discreet about his ambitions. 


Theresa May admitted she should not fight the next election earlier this week, despite admitting she would ‘love’ to stay on as Tory leader for the 2022 campaign

Nevertheless, although voting Remain, he has repositioned himself as a Brexiter — a move calculated to help him appeal to the Eurosceptic grassroots Tory membership, which will decide who succeeds Mrs May.

Of those not in the Cabinet, Boris Johnson leads the charge. Fellow Brussels-baiter David Davis is another on manoeuvres.

In their runners-and-riders coverage this week, the Press have also touted Esther McVey, Dominic Raab, Amber Rudd, Andrea Leadsom and Jacob Rees-Mogg.

However, I believe that another Tory — one who shuns the limelight — is the favourite to be the next PM. I am referring to David Lidington. 


David Lidington is Cabinet Office Minister. He is pictured visiting Core Systems in Belfast to speak with the Northern Ireland Federation of Small Businesses last week

Officially, he has the relatively lowly title of Cabinet Office Minister, but in practice he is deputy prime minister.


David Lidington, 62, has been the MP for Aylesbury in Buckinghamshire since 1992

The 62-year-old Buckinghamshire MP is the most modest of men, with such a low-key reputation among the public that in an opinion poll in the autumn he was 14th in a list of choices to be the next party leader. He was chosen by 0.6 pc of those questioned.

To update Winston Churchill’s damning view of Clement Attlee, Lidington’s detractors probably say he has a great deal to be modest about.

But the former employee of oil giant BP knows every secret of government. And he’s a brainbox. He’s won the TV quiz show University Challenge twice. First as a student in 1978, then in 2002 in a tournament to mark the programme’s 40th anniversary.

Crucially — and very rarely at Westminster — he has few enemies. Also, after the chaos of the past two years of Brexit negotiations which have made them look incompetent, it is without doubt that the Tories will choose a safe pair of hands as their next leader.


Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt is second place favourite to succeed Theresa May. Oborne writes that Hunt would like to be PM one day but is more discreet about his ambitions

That day looks increasingly close as Mrs May suffers rebuff after rebuff from the Commons and from the EU’s other 27 leaders — as she did yet again yesterday. It is still possible she can pull an iron from the fire, but the odds are stacked hugely against her.

I have known David Lidington for more than a quarter of a century. I first came across him when he was bag carrier for Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd during the Major government.

At the time, I thought he was utterly dull.

Over lunch, I discovered a man who was totally loyal to his boss, straightforward, never bad-mouthed colleagues and was obsessively discreet. (I must confess, to my discredit, that I found his discretion frustrating.) The fact is that David Lidington has been trusted by everyone he worked with, and liked even by political opponents.


Nearly seven in ten Tory councillors said Conservative MPs were wrong to try to oust Mrs May

An example of this is how, when he was David Cameron’s Europe minister for six years, he still retained amicable relations with hardline Brexiters such as Bill Cash MP, even though they had profound disagreements.

After the Brexit referendum, Mrs May appointed Lidington to be Justice Secretary. He was moved to the Cabinet Office following Damian Green’s resignation after claims of sexual harassment and a pornography scandal.

Since then, Lidington has been the master of Downing Street. He performs the same kind of role for Mrs May as William Whitelaw did for Mrs Thatcher in the Eighties. In other words, he’s the PM’s loyal and trusted second-in-command.

In normal times, unsung people such as him never get the top job. But we are entering an exceptional period in British politics when the usual rules do not apply. If Theresa May can’t get her EU exit deal through the Commons, we will be in uncharted constitutional territory.

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In such an emergency, there will inevitably be a need for a degree of cross-party cooperation. Indeed, I do not think we should dismiss the possibility of a Tory/Labour deal to get Brexit through. 

In those circumstances, divisive figures such as Boris Johnson would be an obstacle to progress. Not so with David Lidington.

Without doubt, he has never harboured a desire to lead his party — but I can envisage a scenario in which, like Churchill in 1940, he would move into No 10 without the need for a leadership election, and maybe with the support of Labour. Further, history tells us that the initial favourite to become Tory leader invariably doesn’t get the job.

Boris Johnson fell in 2016. David Davis dropped out in 2010. Michael Portillo stumbled in 2001. And John Major was an unfancied 20-1 shot after Michael Heseltine challenged Mrs Thatcher in 1990.

It’s vulgar to boast, but I have picked the winner of three out of the last five Tory leadership contests (William Hague at odds of 10-1 outsider in 1997, Iain Duncan Smith at 33-1 in 2001, then Michael Howard at 10-1.)

According to the bookies, Mr Lidington is 33-1 to be the next prime minister. I suggest you grab these odds! They will shorten fast if Theresa May’s deal goes down in flames.

Who could replace Theresa May? As the PM admits she will have to quit soon, these are some of the leading contenders to take over

Theresa May won her Tory confidence vote after promising not to lead the party into the 2022 general election.

These are some of the leading contenders to replace her:

Boris Johnson – 7/2

How did they vote on Brexit?

Led the Vote Leave campaign alongside Michael Gove.

What is their view now?

Hard line Brexiteer demanding a clean break from Brussels. The former foreign secretary is violently opposed to Theresa May’s Chequers plan and a leading voice demanding a Canada-style trade deal.

What are their chances?

Mr Johnson’s biggest challenge could be navigating the Tory leadership rules. 

He may be confident of winning a run-off among Tory members but must first be selected as one of the top two candidates by Conservative MPs. 


Now rated as favourite by the bookies, Boris Johnson’s (pictured leaving parliament last night) biggest challenge will be navigating the Tory leadership rules

Dominic Raab – 9/2

How did they vote on Brexit?

Leave, with a second tier role campaigning for Vote Leave.

What is their view now?

Mr Raab was installed as Brexit Secretary to deliver the Chequers plan but sensationally resigned last month saying the deal was not good enough.

What are their chances?

His resignation from the Cabinet put rocket boosters under Mr Raab’s chances, fuelling his popularity among the hardline Brexiteers. May struggle to overcome bigger beasts and better known figures. 


Newly installed as Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab (pictured on Tuesday) is trying to negotiate Theresa May’s Brexit deal

Sajid Javid – 5/1

How did they vote on Brexit?

Remain but kept a low profile in the referendum.

What is their view now?

Pro delivering Brexit and sceptical of the soft Brexit options.

What are their chances?

Probably the leading candidate from inside the Cabinet after his dramatic promotion to Home Secretary. Mr Javid has set himself apart from Mrs May on a series of policies, notably immigration.


Sajid Javid (pictured leaving the Houses of Parliament this evening) is probably the leading candidate from inside the Cabinet after his dramatic promotion to Home Secretary

Michael Gove – 7/1

How did they vote on Brexit?

Leave 

What is their view now? 

He has said Theresa May’s Chequers blueprint for Brexit is the ‘right one for now’. But he recently suggested a future prime minister could alter the UK-EU relationship if they desired.

What are their chances? 

He came third in the first round of voting in 2016, trailing behind ultimate winner Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom. Mr Gove has said it is ‘extremely unlikely’ that he would stand again. But he popular in the party and is seen as an ideas man and a reformer by many, and he could change his mind if Theresa May is shown the door.


Michael Gove appeared to rule himself out of the race in recent days, but he ran last time and is popular among many in the party. He is pictured outside the Houses of Parliament today

Jeremy Hunt – 7/1

How did they vote on Brexit?

Remain.

What is their view now?

The Foreign Secretary claims the EU Commission’s ‘arrogance’ has made him a Brexiteer.

What are their chances?

Another top contender inside Cabinet, Mr Hunt’s stock rose during his record-breaking stint at the Department of Health and won a major promotion to the Foreign Office after Mr Johnson’s resignation. Widely seen as a safe pair of hands which could be an advantage if the contest comes suddenly. 


Jeremy Hunt’s stock rose during his record-breaking stint at the Department of Health and won a major promotion to the Foreign Office after Mr Johnson’s resignation

David Davis – 10/1

How did they vote on Brexit?

Leave.

What is their view now?

Leave and a supporter of scrapping Mrs May’s plan and pursuing a Canada-style trade deal with the EU.

What are their chances?

The favoured choice of many hard Brexiteers. Seen as a safer pair of hands than Mr Johnson and across the detail of the current negotiation after two years as Brexit Secretary. He could be promoted a caretaker to see through Brexit before standing down.

Unlikely to be the choice of Remain supporters inside the Tory Party – and has been rejected by the Tory membership before, in the 2005 race against David Cameron. 


David Davis (pictured outside the Houses of Parliament today) is seen as a safer pair of hands than Mr Johnson and across the detail of the current negotiation after two years as Brexit Secretary

Amber Rudd – 14/1

How did they vote on Brexit?

Remain. Represented Britain Stronger in Europe in the TV debates.

What is their view now?

Strongly remain and supportive of a second referendum – particularly given a choice between that and no deal.

What are their chances?

Popular among Conservative MPs as the voice of Cameron-style Toryism, Ms Rudd is still seen as a contender despite resigning amid the Windrush scandal – and she was boosted further by her return to Cabinet as Work and Pensions Secretary on Friday night. She is badly hampered by having a tiny majority in her Hastings constituency and would not be able to unite the Tory party in a sudden contest over the Brexit negotiation. 


Popular among Conservative MPs as the voice of Cameron-style Toryism, Amber Rudd (pictured leaving parliament this evening) is still seen as a contender despite resigning amid the Windrush scandal

Jacob Rees-Mogg – 14/1

How did they vote on Brexit? 

Leave.

What is their view now? 

Leave and recently branded Theresa May’s Brexit U-turn a ‘humiliation’ which has left her deal ‘defeated’. 

What are their chances? 

As chair of the European Research Group (ERG) bloc of Tory Eurosceptics he has been urging MPs to replace Mrs May for weeks. 


Pro-Brexit supporter, Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, walks through members of the media and anit-brexit demonstrators as he walks near to the Houses of Parliament in London yesterday

Penny Mordaunt – 14/1

How did they vote on Brexit?

Leave.

What is their view now?

Leave and subject of persistent rumour she could be the next to quit Cabinet over Mrs May’s Brexit deal.

What are their chances?

Possible dark horse in the contest, Ms Mordaunt is not well known to the public but is seen as a contender in Westminster. Known to harbour deep concerns about Mrs May’s Brexit deal, but has stopped short of resigning from Cabinet. 


Possible dark horse in the contest, Penny Mordaunt (pictured in Downing Street) is not well known to the public but is seen as a contender in Westminster

Andrea Leadsom – 16/1 

How did they vote on Brexit?

Leave.

What is their view now?

Ms Leadsom said in late November that she was backing the withdrawal agreement struck with Brussels because it ‘delivered’ on the referendum result. 

What are their chances? 

Leader of the Commons since June, Andrea Leadsom found herself at the centre of controversy in the 2016 leadership campaign when comments she made were interpreted as a claim that she would be a better PM than Mrs May because she was a mother. Asked recently whether Mrs May was the right person to be leading the country, she said she is ‘at the moment’. 


Andrea Leadsom, Leader of the House of Commons, arrives at Downing Street on Thursday last week

Gavin Williamson – 33/1 

How did they vote on Brexit?

Remain. 

What is their view now?

Mr Williamson tweeted today: ‘The Prime Minister has my full support. She works relentlessly hard for our country and is the best person to make sure we leave the EU on 29 March and continue to deliver our domestic agenda.’ 

What are their chances?

He backed Remain in the referendum and pledged his support for Mrs May in the 2016 leadership contest but has since been mentioned as a potential future Tory leader. 


Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson is a 33/1 outsider according to the best odds by bookies this evening

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