General election odds – will there be a general election and how many no confidence letters could trigger one?

After Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resigned and Labour vowed to vote down her Brussels deal, another General Election could be on the cards.

What are the odds on another General Election?

The Tories are deeply divided on the UK's approach to Brexit, meaning Theresa May's support looks dangerously weak.

She chaired a Chequers summit in July 2018 that sought to clarify Britain's negotiating position in EU exit talks.

But many in her Cabinet and in the backbenches believed the proposals were too soft – and did not provide a clean divorce from Brussels.

It sparked the resignation of David Davis and Boris Johnson in the space of just 24 hours.

The PM was humiliated by fellow EU leaders in September, but defiantly said a deal is close.

Bookmaker Ladbrokes reckons there is a 12/1 chance of a general election before the end of 2018 and just 2/1 it will come some time in 2019.

The next election is not officially due until 2022.

Another hung parliament is the 6/4 most likely outcome, with the Tories tipped to win most seats at 10/11 and Labour evens.

How many no confidence letters could trigger a General Election?

Conservative party rules say a vote of no confidence in the leader can be triggered if 15 per cent of Tory MPs write demanding it.

The current threshold is 48 letters. Rumours say there have already been 35.

Mrs May would then face a vote of all her MPs and would quit of she lost.

In theory the winner of the party leadership contest would be crowned the next prime minister.

But he or she could find it difficult to govern without a majority and would face huge pressure to seek a mandate from the public.

Alternatively Theresa May could decide to call an election herself, although that would be a huge gamble after the disastrous snap poll in 2017.

A general election would also be the likely outcome if the government lost a motion of no confidence in the Commons.



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