CARLSBAD, Calif. — The Yankees have won 98 or more regular-season games 30 times, and on 28 of those occasions finished first in a league or division.
The outliers were 1954, when they reached 103, but the Indians set the AL record at 111 that the 114-win 1998 Yankees would top. This past year, the Yankees came in at 100, but the Red Sox won a franchise-record 108.
The reaction was less harsh in 1954 when there was no all-sports radio or Twitter and their conquerors were the Indians not the Red Sox. The Yankees, in some way, are victims of timing. In 2017 they were cast in a rebuild, yet reached ALCS Game 7. That heightened expectations for 2018, which coincided with the Red Sox having a historic year, then beating the Yankees in the division series and then winning a fourth title in 15 seasons, a period in which the Yankees have captured one.
So the Yankees will apply all the detached logic they have mustered over the years not to overreact, but let’s face it, they need to win a championship — and soon. We can talk windows, but keep in mind those 1954 Indians didn’t win and that franchise has been without a title since 1948. The Dodgers have run through various title-less windows for three decades now. Bryce Harper is likely to sign elsewhere this offseason and that Nationals’ window fashioned around Harper and Stephen Strasburg — not so much any more.
I don’t think the Yankees will overreact. But they will act. Boldly. I believe they will stay away for sure from Harper, whom they have never seemed infatuated with, and probably fellow free agent Manny Machado as well. I expect this will be a spread-a-lot-around offseason as they did after 2008, when they invested $423.5 million on A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira or five years later when it was $458 million on Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Masahiro Tanaka.
Another five years have passed and I would be surprised if the Yanks did not add at least two starters with the expected suspects being free agents Patrick Corbin, Nathan Eovaldi, J.A. Happ or a trade for an Indian such as Carlos Carrasco or Corey Kluber.
They will work to keep their bullpen strong with at least one and possibly two, with Andrew Miller, Adam Ottavino and David Robertson offering enticement. To weather Didi Gregorius’ at least half-season absence they probably will try to find a versatile lefty bat, with switch-hitter Marwin Gonzalez particularly attractive and retaining Neil Walker a potential fallback.
Whether it is these players or others, the Yankees are going to be active. Hal Steinbrenner will want to stay beneath the 2019 $206 million luxury-tax threshold. But he knows the Red Sox are not going away next year and he already has told me he doesn’t want to be in the wild-card game for a third straight year.
This is what moves markets: Motivated or desperate teams. In the AL East, no club will be more adrenalized to change the narrative that the Red Sox are forging a curse on the Yankees than Steinbrenner’s organization. As the GM meetings open, these are the clubs that lead the offseason divisional standings in being desperately motivated:
NL East: Phillies. The Mets want to show they are operating in a new way under Brodie Van Wagenen, who needs to demonstrate the Mets did not make a mistake by dipping into the agent world to hire a GM. The Nationals (previously Expos) remain without a title in their history and now likely won’t have Harper to chase their first.
But the Phillies have been pointing toward this offseason for several years. Owner John Middleton has not hidden his fervor to spend. They are the lone team that outsiders believe could sign Harper AND Machado. Machado is more likely.
The spending is unlikely to end there. Philadelphia has capital and needs. After going from 64-49 and first place to finish 16-33 and under .500, the pressure intensifies, particularly on polarizing manager Gabe Kapler.
NL Central: Cardinals. The Cubs are pushing up against a budget as they explore why their offense went dormant late last season while also wanting to secure more than just their one historic title in this current — wait for it — window.
But so long the class of the division, the Cardinals have missed the playoffs three consecutive seasons for the first time since 1997-99. They cannot keep telling their fan base they have the dollars for a huge star. They did have a deal worked out last offseason with the Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton, but he invoked his no-trade provision. Cardinals officials concede they need a mid-order heavyweight, which is why they are associated with Harper and Machado and yet for another year, Josh Donaldson too. They also are expected to be active with the best relievers — think Zach Britton, Craig Kimbrel, etc.
NL West: Padres. Yep, the Dodgers lost a second straight World Series and there is growing frustration over the perception that they are so buried in analytics that they are missing real-time problems. The leadership is smart and energized and they will have bold moments this offseason.
But let’s consider the four-year-plus term of San Diego GM A.J. Preller, who built payroll and star-power in his first full season at the expense of his prospect base. He fired manager Bud Black in 2015 and Black re-emerged in the division to steer the Rockies to the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time. Preller was suspended by MLB 30 days in 2015 for withholding medical information within a trade to the Red Sox. His two big signings — Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer — have gone poorly. Plus, in his four full seasons, Preller’s Padres have the majors’ second-worst record.
Preller has built perhaps the majors’ best farm system. They have the collateral to land an Indians starter or perhaps even pry away Noah Syndergaard, if the Mets go in that direction, San Diego has the pieces to do it and a GM that needs to create a winner. Now.
AL Central: White Sox. The Indians’ willingness to move a top-of-the-rotation starter to restrain spending and find quality outfielders will make them a winter focus.
But the White Sox just had their sixth straight losing season and registered 100 losses for the first time since 1970. Few signs have emerged that the total rebuild is on the same course that the crosstown Cubs recently enjoyed. That Chris Sale just won a World Series hurts more because the two key pieces the White Sox got back for him are Michael Kopech, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, and Yoan Moncada, who just struck out 217 times without fully brandishing the power/speed results projected for him.
The White Sox still have exciting prospects, notably outfielder Eloy Jimenez. But at some point they are going to have to mix some winning in.
AL WEST: Angels. The Astros have Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton in free agency this offseason, and Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander looming next year. They have rotation renovation to do — plus will be among the most ardent suitors (along with the Braves, Nationals, Dodgers and others) if the Marlins make J.T. Realmuto available. The Mariners remain the longest in the four major sports without a playoff appearance (2001), but lacking the prospect base or dollars necessary for a major strike.
Mike Trout is a free agent after the 2020 season. To date, the Angels have one playoff appearance and no wins in a seven-year span in which Trout has established himself as a historic player. The Angels have talked about trying to extend Trout further this offseason, but you can imagine he will want to see signs that he will one day be on a championship contender. So expect the Angels to be aggressive in the pitching market — think all the guys the Yankees are interested in, plus maybe Sabathia, too (whom they tried to lure last offseason).
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