This is not chaos.
Even after four top-10 teams (Georgia, West Virginia, Washington and Penn State) lost last weekend, the top 10 is still comprised solely of teams that were ranked before the season started.
It can’t be chaos when similar upsets happen every season. It can’t be chaos when more than half the season remains. It can’t be chaos when the top three teams (Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State) have possession of the past four national championships, or when the No. 4 team (Notre Dame) is the sport’s most storied program, or when the No. 6 team (Michigan) has the most all-time wins, or when the rest of the top nine is made up of college football’s elite (LSU, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma).
Chaos rarely comes, and not just because Alabama has won five of the past nine national titles. In the playoff era, only nine schools have claimed the 16 spots. This century, there has been no first-time national champion.
Even if it felt new two years ago when Clemson broke a 35-year title drought, the Tigers have become as powerful as any program outside of Tuscaloosa, Ala., and have made three straight playoff appearances.
This week, Clemson (6-0) faces its biggest hurdle to a fourth trip, against North Carolina State (5-0), the ACC’s only other ranked team. In the past two years, the Wolfpack have given the Tigers fits, losing by seven last season, and losing in overtime the year before, following a missed 33-yard field goal that would have been a game-winner.
This year, N.C. State averages more than 35 points per game, surrenders the nation’s 12th-fewest per game (17.8 points), and has a senior quarterback (Ryan Finley), who soon will be an NFL first-round pick.
However, the No. 16 Wolfpack have built their status against James Madison, Georgia State, Marshall, Virginia and Boston College. It is the same path West Virginia took to become the No. 6 team in the nation. It is the reason why it is too early for most rankings to carry any weight.
With CLEMSON (-17), you know where you stand — and you know where the Tigers will be by season’s end.
Stanford (-2½) over ARIZONA STATE: David Shaw and Herm Edwards have both had nearly two weeks to prepare for Thursday’s game. Something tells me Shaw has come up with the better game plan.
BOISE STATE (-23½) over Colorado State: Brett Rypien’s recent slump ends in a meeting with the nation’s 105th-ranked defense.
TCU (+8) over Oklahoma: Firing defensive coordinator Mike Stoops won’t solve the Sooners’ defensive shortcomings. If it were that simple, just about every team in the Big 12 would do the same thing every season.
Michigan (-7) over MICHIGAN STATE: Much is made of Jim Harbaugh’s terrible record against his in-state rivals, but the Wolverines coach would be 2-1 against the Spartans if not for the one of the craziest endings in college football history — Blake O’Neill’s fumbled punt in 2015. The Spartans aren’t going to pull another rabbit out of their hat (head?) after last weekend’s shocker over Penn State.
IOWA (-9¹/₂) over Maryland: D.J. Durkin has made nearly $600,000 since being put on administrative leave as coach in August. That is all. Enjoy your day. Jordan McNair won’t.
Cincinnati (+3½) over TEMPLE: The unbeaten Bearcats are coming off a bye, and will play the three-loss Owls in a mostly-empty Lincoln Financial Field. The crazier part is that Temple pays the Philadelphia Eagles seven figures each year for the rights to a neutral-site atmosphere.
TENNESSEE (+29) over Alabama: This year’s consistently overinflated Alabama lines make it too hard to have much confidence either way. Nick Saban enters his first game against Jeremy Pruitt with a 13-0 record against former assistant coaches, winning by an average of more than 26 points.
Colorado (+15½) over WASHINGTON: Someday, the Huskies may live up to their reputation as the Pac-12’s most talented team. Someday, the Pac-12 might look like a power conference, too.
INDIANA (+15) over Penn State: With a couple of breaks, the Nittany Lions easily could have come out on the right side of their four losses over the past two seasons, decided by a total of nine points. Talent isn’t the problem, and that has revealed an even deeper issue on their sideline.
EAST CAROLINA (+21) over Central Florida: The Pirates have shown up in their biggest on-paper games this season, beating North Carolina, and taking a tie into the fourth quarter against No. 21 South Florida.
LSU (-6½) over Mississippi State: Single-threat Bulldogs quarterback Nick Fitzgerald has thrown for an average of 104 yards per game, with no touchdowns and two interceptions in SEC play, and won’t be able to win with his legs against one of the country’s top run defenses.
Ohio State (-13¹/₂) over PURDUE: Nick Bosa’s departure could cost the Buckeyes a national championship — but it won’t have much impact until they face an opponent in their weight class.
WASHINGTON STATE (-3) over Oregon: The high-powered and well-rested Cougars haven’t lost at home in nearly two years, while the Ducks are due for a letdown after their overtime win against Washington.
KENTUCKY (-11) over Vanderbilt: Benny Snell has led the Wildcats to back-to-back wins over the Commodores, rushing for 116 yards and three touchdowns last year. The nation’s eighth-leading rusher (116.5 yards per game) could have an even bigger day against a defense allowing an average of 257 rushing yards in its four games against power conference opponents.
Best bets: Iowa, Washington State, Kentucky
This season (best bets): 54-61-1 (10-11)
2014-17 record: 518-471-10
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