Sam Walsh’s name will be called out first in this year’s national draft, barring an unforseen mega deal being thrown at Carlton between now and 7.15pm Thursday.
And the rest of the so-called “super seven” appears locked in as clubs with top 10 picks arrived at their decision early this week, following interviews with prospective players.
The Blues have been– and publicly still are – open to the idea of trading their coveted first pick, but ultimately haven’t been able to find a way to get the combination of two other players they wanted.
If Carlton could have manouevred a way to get Izak Rankine and Max King, or Max and his twin brother Ben, then the Blues would have traded away the opportunity to draft Walsh.
But even receiving Gold Coast’s picks two and six – a deal the Suns would never have allowed – Max would be taken by St Kilda at pick four or with Port Adelaide at five after the Blues took Rankine at two.
Gold Coast have also toyed with the idea of drafting both Max and Ben at 2 and 3, with the obvious thought that they’d be less likely to go home to Victoria if they were together.
Max (left) and Ben King will both go early in the draft on Thursday night.Credit:Eddie Jim
But ultimately, it would be too large a risk to bypass both Jack Lukosius and Rankine with two of the top three picks.
The Saints look set to take Max King at pick four, despite the difference of opinion internally.
National recruiting boss Chris Liberatore is a huge fan of South Australian midfield gun Connor Rozee, while head of footy Simon Lethlean has kept a close eye on King for years.
King – seen by many recruiters and list managers as the best player in the draft – would almost certainly have been taken at pick one had he not torn his ACL earlier this year.
It’s expected that Lethlean will win that debate, take King with four and then work on how to lure his brother Ben – likely to be taken at six by Gold Coast – back to Victoria in two years.
Gold Coast will almost certainly offer all three expected top 10 picks – Lukosius, Rankine and Ben King – immediate two-year contract extensions and it will be intriguing to see if Ben signs one.
While Max has been described as several recruiters as a once-in-a-generation-type player, the Saints would still be taking a slight risk by drafting him at pick four.
AFL doctors believe the average footballer has a 10 per cent chance of rupturing an ACL in his career.
That statistic rises to 17-22 per cent if they have torn one before, and edges towards 30 per cent the earlier you do it in your career.
Port Adelaide will grab Rozee – a local North Adelaide prospect – at pick five and list manager Jason Cripps will be praised for getting Port so far up the draft order during the trade period.
The late mail suggests the only factor that could upset the stability of the “super seven” is explosive Vic Country star Jye Caldwell.
The Bendigo Pioneers midfielder has barely played in his draft year due to injury, but the Suns may decide at pick six to use the Brisbane Lions model of picking country players, who would be seen as less of a flight risk than Ben King.
Then we get to the Bulldogs, who will feel privileged to be able to take Vic Metro star Bailey Smith at pick seven.
The Sandringham Dragons captain is as fastidious in his preparation as he is damaging on the field.
Luke Ball has referred to him as the most physically advanced draftee that he’s ever seen, and his running capacity combined with his ball use on both sides of his body has had him talked about as a number one smokey earlier in the year.
Smith has talked about his preference to stay in Victoria and he seems all but certain to have that wish granted.
It’s at this point that the draft becomes trickier – albeit slightly – to predict.
Adelaide have pick eight and list manager Justin Reid and his team are renowned for keeping clubs with academy picks honest.
That would suggest that the Crows are likely to bid on Sydney academy player Nick Blakey (son of John) at pick eight and maybe then on North Melbourne prodigy Tarryn Thomas, who the Kangaroos have been happy to privately talk down during the year.
It would leave Adelaide at pick 10 to take Caldwell if he’s still available, while also considering Tasmanian midfielder Chayce Jones, West Australian half-back Jordan Clark, and South Australian mid/forward Jackson Hately.
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